The logic of the scenario description will be as follows: first we will describe the coordinate system in which we think about political dynamics, then we will “immerse” several basic general political scenarios into it. If we assume in the process of forecasting any change in the system under study, then it is advisable to describe what its main properties will change. Thus, we can set the coordinate axes of a certain space in which the political trend we are describing will take place. Political system: “adaptability - rigidity (rigidity).” This refers to the ability for institutional adaptability. Options are possible here: rigidity is always rigidity, but adaptability can be different. For example, this may be organized adaptability, or it may be spontaneous, generated by the chaos of the initial phase of the transition period (which characterized the period from 1989 to 1994). Legal order: “playing by the rules is playing with the rules.” The first pole provides for the presence of stable, generally accepted and supported by the overwhelming majority of society rules of the game, be it democratic rules or the rules of a totalitarian system. The main thing is the presence of elite consensus around these rules. At the other pole are the rules established by part of the elite in conditions of conflict. This is usually accompanied by the manipulation of rules in favor of their “authors”, and in transition periods it is complemented by the mixing of different legal systems - the outgoing and the new. Elites: “consolidation - conflict.” Associated with the choice of strategy for resolving existing problems. In the first case, the strategy is to seek unity around a dominant interest. It should be borne in mind that the mentioned interest can be both socially significant and useful, and self-interested group. In the second case, the strategy is based on suppressing groups with other interests. It seems to me that there are four possible general political development scenarios and the factors that promote or hinder them. For convenience of presentation, we will assign each of them a conventional name. Inertial development - Sluggish Russia"; police mode - “Gloomy Russia”; Dynamic development within the framework of strengthening democratic institutions - “Energetic Russia”; finally, the collapse of the country - “Disintegrated Russia.” 1. “Sluggish Russia.” This scenario, which actually means the defeat of modernization and leads the country to a historical dead end, is relatively comfortable for the elites, since it is possible to exist in such a regime for some time without serious upheavals. We consider this scenario as the most likely, since the elite does not need to make extraordinary efforts to implement it. It is characterized (in terms of the coordinate system we introduced): consolidation of elites under the influence of the instinct of collective self-preservation; establishing and entrenching strict rules aimed at preserving the existing elites; rigidity of the system, generated by concentration on solving one problem - self-preservation. 2. “Gloomy Russia”. This scenario may correspond either to the defeat of modernization, or to a certain stage when dictatorship is used by the elite, on the contrary, as a tool of modernization, which seems more familiar, simple and convenient. It can be described by the following features: a split in the elites and the suppression of the rest by one elite group; “playing with the rules” due to the monopolization of the legal system by part of the elite and using it in their own interests; the rigidity of the system due to the fact that the victorious elite group focuses on solving a single task - maintaining and strengthening its power. 3. “Energetic Russia”. We consider this scenario as the success of democratic modernization, and the basis for this is the compliance of the result with the stated goals, as well as the objective reasons mentioned above (the establishment of institutional adaptability). The signs of this scenario are as follows: elite consensus around the rules for coordinating interests and resolving conflicts; playing according to rules established in accordance with generally accepted procedures; adaptability of the system due to the presence of political competition. 4. “Disintegrated Russia.” We are obliged to consider this option as a possible way out of the unstable state that is transit. This scenario has the following features: split, fierce confrontation between elites vertically and lack of consolidation horizontally; lack of adaptability of the system due to the collapse of unified management mechanisms and due to the desire of parts of the system to independently solve problems; a game with rules that turns into legal chaos due to the collapse of a unified legal system. The above scenarios can be simultaneously interpreted as the state of the country in some uncertain future. To make the dynamics clearer, I propose to consider two more states: the former (“Yeltsin’s Russia”) and the current (“Putin’s Russia”). The first of these conditions is characterized by a “game with rules” generated by the mixture of old and new legal systems and the confrontation of elites; adaptability associated with legal chaos, weakness of power and the action of spontaneous adaptation mechanisms; split and fierce confrontation between elites. The second (current) state is characterized by: the presence of impulses to form a game according to the rules and at the same time maintaining a “game with the rules”; reducing adaptability by limiting opposition and introducing elements of a command control system; post-revolutionary consolidation of elites. The latter, however, was truly inherent in the first period of Vladimir Putin’s presidency; now signs of this consolidation are being eroded. Russia is at a crossroads, at a certain point of uncertainty. She has abandoned spontaneous adaptability. But it is not yet clear where it will go: either it will become rigid again, or it will acquire real institutional adaptability. She moved away from “playing with rules” when old and new norms conflicted. But again it is unclear where it will come: either to playing by democratic rules, or to the strict norms of authoritarianism. It has moved away from the confrontation of the Yeltsin era, but it is unclear where it will come: to agreement around the democratic rules of the game or to a conspiracy of elites in the name of self-preservation. These forks determine the main trajectories of the country’s possible movement into the future. The described scenarios are not some kind of railway lines, entering which strictly predetermines further movement. On the contrary, they are interdependent, have points of intersection and transition into each other, common incentives or outcomes. This is related to that. that all of them, to one degree or another, are different ways of realizing the same more general historical patterns. As I have already noted, there are no monotonous processes in nature (including social nature). One of the manifestations of this general principle is that a major revolution may be followed by repeated revolutionary outbursts of a smaller scale, which subsequently transform into natural cycles of development. The reaction of the post-revolutionary period can go so far that it requires extraordinary efforts by society to overcome it, which gives rise to these repeated outbursts. Repeated revolutionary waves draw energy from those social tensions that are generated by various directions of society and government. In the post-revolutionary period, the ruling elite is guided more by the instinct of self-preservation than by any historical mission. Society, meanwhile, continues its independent movement in the direction that was set by the primary revolutionary impulse (possibly vilifying the revolution itself, its leaders, and its ideas). The ruling elite is trying to respond to these tensions in two possible ways: first, a general consolidation of the elite (collusion); the second is the suppression of the opposition elite. Obviously, both of these methods can only temporarily compensate for stress, but cannot cancel either them or their increase. The latter create, sooner or later, a revolutionary situation. Now I’ll try to analyze the scenario that so far seems most likely, taking the consequences of its implementation to a certain logical extreme.

I. Formation of basic scenarios

The development of the main scenarios for the socio-economic development of the city of Rostov-on-Don is based on the parameters of the long-term development of Russia as a whole, the Southern Federal District and the Rostov Region, formulated within the framework of the Concept of long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation until 2020, the Economic Development Strategy of the Southern Federal District for the period until 2025 and the Strategy for the socio-economic development of the region until 2020.

All scenarios take as a basis the same global economic conditions (defined in the Concept of long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation) - a slowdown in global economic growth and a decline in commodity prices in 2009-2010, as a consequence of the global financial crisis, accompanied by the development of a production crisis; probable resumption in 2010, after overcoming the crisis, of dynamic growth of the world economy (on average about 4% per year) with a balanced ratio of globalization and regionalization trends.

The key trends in all-Russian socio-economic development that influence the forecast configuration are:

Exhaustion of the potential of the raw materials export model of economic development;

Transition to an innovative type of economic development;

Formation of an independent sustainable financial system;

The need to overcome limitations in infrastructure sectors (electric power, transport);

A decline in the working-age population, coupled with an increasing shortage of skilled workers and engineers;

Increasing global influence of environmental factors, which creates additional opportunities for Russia, which has significant reserves of environmental resources;

Strengthening competition, both in domestic and foreign markets, with the development of foreign economic integration, strengthening and expanding Russia’s position in the global technology and capital markets.

All development scenarios for the city of Rostov-on-Don take into account the sectoral priorities of socio-economic development laid down in the Economic Development Strategy of the Southern Federal District for the period up to 2025 and including: the agro-industrial complex, the scientific and educational complex, services in the fields of tourism and transport.

Also, all scenarios take into account the main trends in the socio-economic development of the Rostov region, in particular, those projected for the period 2010-2020, high rates of industrial growth and activation of the non-productive sector: trade, service sector and intellectual services sector, which will lead to a high level of diversification economy of the region.

The strategic directions for the development of the Rostov region for the period of implementation of the Strategy are:

Creation and development of Greater Rostov as the center of the South of Russia;

Accelerated development of transport infrastructure, including those focused on servicing export-import flows;

Formation of competitive clusters of restorative growth and technological modernization on the basis of large enterprises (primarily the military-industrial complex, railway transport);

Creation of new industries due to the influx of new investments into the region.

In the demographic sphere and in the labor market, we should expect increased competition for labor, which in the long term should lead to an increase in its cost, combined with stabilization of the population and even its growth.

Possible city development scenarios are determined by external and internal conditions and factors and allow us to give a comprehensive assessment of the likely development prospects of the city of Rostov-on-Don for the period until 2025. The choice of a system of scenarios is determined by the objective presence of inert and active principles of the urban system, the likely prospects for their manifestation in the development of the city of Rostov-on-Don in the coming years.

Options for the long-term development of the city of Rostov-on-Don are revealed in three scenarios - negative, inertial and positive. In all scenarios, socio-economic development in the forecasted future will be determined, first of all, by the degree of active participation of the city in the creation and development of Greater Rostov as the center of the South of Russia.

1. Negative development scenario

This scenario assumes the loss of Rostov-on-Don’s main competitive advantages, which may be due to simultaneous inattention to the significant potential of its socio-economic development and solving the city’s key problems. A passive position regarding the development and improvement of the urban environment means for Rostov-on-Don the danger of an ineffective and slow response to emerging external threats. The main ones include: the impact of the global economic crisis and the risk of faster development of competing cities. The consequence of this may be missed opportunities to become a major metropolis and one of the growth poles of the Russian economy.

The implementation of the negative scenario will lead to deterioration and destabilization of the entire urban system, including the formation of an unfavorable investment climate. Inattention to the advantages of the city’s favorable economic and geographical position will lead to a significant reduction in its influence throughout the Southern macroregion, weakening trade, cultural and economic ties with other regional and international centers.

The problem of organizing the intra-city territory will remain unresolved, in particular, the lack of land space, the inadequate spatial structure of the central part of the city, the ineffective organization of the transport network and the weak functional specialization of city districts. In such conditions, the volume of new construction will sharply decrease, and the transport load will reach critical values.

Significant deterioration of utilities, generating capacities and transport infrastructure will lead to a reduction in production development opportunities. Under this scenario, a significant decrease in the production potential of Rostov-on-Don is also likely, due to the weak introduction of innovations in industry, primarily in mechanical engineering. The city's largest enterprises may lose their competitive positions in the market due to obsolescence of production technologies. The level of diversification of the real sector of the city’s economy will decrease, including due to the weak development of small business organizations.

There will be a decrease in business and entrepreneurial activity, which will lead to a significant limitation in the formation of a modern business environment in the city. Insufficient funding for research and educational activities will lead to a slowdown in the development of the innovation sector.

As a result of economic stagnation, the quality of life of the population will decrease, income growth will slow down, the rate of growth in prices for consumer goods and services will accelerate, the poverty level will increase, the quality of the urban environment will noticeably deteriorate, and the unemployment rate will rise. Social inequality will lead to a decrease in the safety of the social environment due to an increase in the number of crimes. The anthropogenic load on the city’s environment will increase, including due to the overaccumulation of toxic waste by enterprises.

The number of socially significant and socially determined diseases (cancer, tuberculosis, HIV infection) will continue to increase. In connection with this, there will be a reduction in labor resources and an increase in the proportion of disabled people in the total population, which will cause a greater burden on the working-age population. The number of fatal cases of disease will increase, and in the absence of effective preventive measures, the number of chronic cases of disease will increase.

All these processes, together with high rates of infant and child mortality, will lead to a sharp decline in population. According to the negative scenario for the development of the demographic situation, which assumes the minimum birth rate over the last 4 years, the maximum death rate and the minimum migration increase, the city’s population will decrease by more than 120 thousand people, or 12%, by 2030.

The probability of this scenario being realized, however, is quite low, due to the need for the simultaneous manifestation of all external threats with the absolute passivity of the city government, and is about 10%.

2. Inertial development scenario

The inertial development scenario involves moving along a previously determined trajectory, maintaining current development trends, existing conditions and the main features of the state of the urban system.

The inertial development scenario is based on the use of the existing competitive advantages of the local economy, maintaining the existing level of industrial production by city enterprises and maintaining the transport infrastructure at the existing level.

As part of the implementation of this development scenario, the city does not form long-term goals and guidelines for its development, but develops as the current situation suggests. In this regard, the socio-economic situation of the city will be determined mainly by the following factors:

Local successes related to the implementation of short-term goals;

Maintaining social stability;

Reduction in the rate of economic development from high to average;

The effect of accumulation of problems;

Low risks when establishing a stable socio-economic situation in the country and proportional decline when the national situation worsens.

As part of the implementation of the inertial scenario, large businesses independently form and implement economic development policies and measures to increase their own competitiveness, which makes it possible to establish a relatively high level of competitiveness of large enterprises in the city.

Maintaining the existing investment and business climate will allow maintaining the stable operation of enterprises in the main sectors of the economy, however, it will lead to the establishment of relatively low rates of economic development of the city as a whole, due to the influence of negative external factors.

Stable performance indicators of large enterprises will maintain a sufficient level of budgetary sufficiency of the city, which will allow partial implementation of planned social development activities related to the preservation of opportunities for obtaining educational, medical and socio-cultural services for all groups of the population supporting the production potential of high-tech industries of Rostov-on-Don specialization . The implementation of the planned measures will make it possible to maintain the level of the integral quality of life index above the Russian average.

The integral quality of life index is a universal aggregate indicator that allows us to combine the most important aspects that determine the comfort of a person’s life in a given territory.

The index value is calculated using a special method, using the following indicators: the ratio of per capita income to the cost of a fixed set of consumer goods and services; population with monetary incomes below the subsistence level, infant mortality rate, life expectancy at birth, availability of doctors (per 10,000 population), number of registered crimes, level of housing improvement (sewage, gas, water supply), average housing area per inhabitant, the number of telephones (per 1000 population), the number of students in vocational educational institutions of all types, the unemployment rate, the volume of pollutant emissions into the air, the number of visits to museums, the number of theater spectators.

However, in this situation, an increase in wages will only be able to compensate for inflation; the real incomes of citizens will not increase significantly. The poverty level will remain at the level of previous years, and will not increase only thanks to targeted financial support for socially vulnerable citizens at the expense of budget funds. The safety of the social environment will remain at the 2008 level. For certain types of offenses, the number of offenses will increase (economic crimes, etc.), however, due to the high detection rate, it will be possible to prevent a sharp decline in the level of security. The anthropogenic load will remain unchanged: atmospheric emissions from road transport will not be reduced, since the reconstruction of the city’s road network will not be carried out in full.

The estimated population, in accordance with the inertial scenario, in 2030 will be 956,127 people; in 22 years the city will lose 92.5 thousand or 9% of the current population. Due to the fact that the city of Rostov-on-Don is the largest “employer” in the region, positive migration growth will continue in the city. A relatively low level of both total and registered unemployment is predicted, despite a significant increase in the values ​​of these indicators in the country as a whole, due to the global financial crisis.

Unlike large enterprises, the development of small businesses within the framework of the implementation of the inertial scenario will be difficult. This trend is explained by the strong vulnerability of small businesses and their dependence on the support of local governments, even taking into account the fact that the inertial scenario assumes self-regulation of industries in the long term. As a consequence of this, a decrease in the pace of development of the trade and public catering sector is likely, since small businesses occupy about 50% of the city’s consumer services market.

The level of development of the transport system of Rostov-on-Don, due to its favorable border economic and geographical position in relation to the regional centers of Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and other countries, will allow it to maintain its leading position in the South of Russia in the long term.

Strengthening the position of the city of Rostov-on-Don as the largest transport hub in the South of Russia is also possible as part of the creation of Greater Rostov in accordance with the Strategic Plan for Socio-Economic Development approved by the Administration of the Rostov Region. The implementation by the Rostov region of measures for the development of Greater Rostov will create the opportunity for spatial development and optimization of the territorial structure of the city, and will also compensate for the impossibility of expanding the city’s territory at the expense of its own resources. At the same time, within the framework of this scenario, spontaneous development of Greater Rostov or the emergence of administrative barriers to its development due to the imperfection of the legislative framework is possible.

According to the inertial development scenario, the city will maintain a high degree of deterioration of the main elements of infrastructure. Infrastructural limitations reduce the possibilities for a comfortable life for the population, the formation of a healthy lifestyle, and the expansion of cultural needs.

Despite the introduction of modern technologies, an effective transport network will not be formed in Rostov-on-Don, and therefore the state of the road infrastructure will remain a serious problem for the city.

The main result of the inertial development scenario will be the preservation of a relatively stable socio-economic situation, however, lost benefits will lead to a reduction in the achieved high rates of development, an increase in the gap from competing cities and a potential loss of the status of the leader of the Southern Federal District.

The probability of the implementation of the inertial scenario of city development is average and is estimated to be about 40%, which is explained by the currently formed stable socio-economic situation and the lack of territorial resources, limiting its further development.

3. Positive development scenario

The positive scenario assumes that Rostov-on-Don realizes its potential to the maximum extent, using favorable opportunities for the development of human capital, the economy and the urban environment, adequately and promptly responding to negative manifestations of external factors. This scenario is characterized by qualitative positive changes in the socio-economic situation of the city based on successful territorial development, active implementation and use of innovations in the production and non-production sectors, the development of scientific, educational and transport and logistics complexes, and ensuring a high quality of life for the population.

During the period under review, the economy of Rostov-on-Don will develop at a faster rate compared to the economy of the Russian Federation, thanks to the rapid renewal of production potential, constant generation and the introduction of the latest industrial, communication and social technologies. The accelerated development of the city's economic complex will take place on the basis of the achievements of local science, fruitful cooperation of educational institutions and research institutes with industrial and financial organizations.

The largest enterprises of Rostov-on-Don will strengthen their positions both in the Russian and international markets. At the same time, there will be a significant strengthening of the role of small and medium-sized businesses in various sectors of the economy, incl. in the manufacturing sector. Quantitative and qualitative growth of the real sector will entail an increase in tax contributions to all levels of the budget system. As a result, the capabilities of the Administration of Rostov-on-Don will expand to support local industries, participate in investment projects, and increase the efficiency of the ongoing socio-economic policy.

The innovative development scenario assumes a high-quality modernization of the transport complex, optimization of the system of freight flows and product distribution, organization of technical, technological and information support for freight transportation. By 2025, Rostov-on-Don will become one of the leading transport and logistics centers not only in Russia, but also among cities in Eastern Europe, Transcaucasia and the Middle East.

The city's internal transport network will be significantly improved: the problem of excessive congestion in the central business district will be resolved, traffic density will be normalized, dirt roads will be repaired and paved, and the city's supply of parking spaces will increase.

Another important area of ​​modernization of urban infrastructure will be the repair and construction of new housing and communal services facilities, primarily distribution networks in the electricity, heat and water supply sectors. The share of dilapidated and dilapidated housing stock will be significantly reduced, while, thanks to the high pace of construction, the specific supply of housing per person will increase.

The scenario under consideration includes:

Accelerated development of economic institutions that determine the protection of property rights, increased competitiveness of markets, reduced investment and business risks, reduced administrative barriers and improved quality of municipal services, development of public-private partnerships;

Qualitative development of social institutions, including the spheres of education, healthcare, housing policy, culture and sports, ensuring a significant increase in the quality of human capital and living standards of the population;

Stabilization of the population thanks to active demographic and migration policies;

Solving the problem of the shortage of consolidated areas for the implementation of investment projects through the development of Greater Rostov and optimization of the territorial structure of the city;

Modernization of the urban infrastructure of Rostov-on-Don, providing a decent living environment for the population.

As a result of the creation of favorable institutional conditions and the implementation of competent policies by the Administration of Rostov-on-Don, all subsystems of the urban economy will be able to adequately respond to future challenges. At the same time, all the shortcomings of the internal environment of Greater Rostov are minimized. A strong competitive economy, based on the rapid implementation of innovative technologies, high quality education and a developed transport and logistics complex, will generate sustainable growth in the well-being of the population. By 2025, the income level of residents will reach European standards, and average life expectancy will increase by 5-7 years.

A positive development scenario provides for an increase in the well-being of the population due to wage growth rates that are faster than the inflation rate. The poverty level of the population will decrease, unemployment will decrease due to the creation of new jobs, primarily by small and medium-sized businesses. The safety indicators of the social environment will improve thanks to the coordinated activities of the public, law enforcement agencies and the City Administration.

The environmental situation in the city will improve due to the construction of bypass roads, the relocation of some enterprises outside the city limits, and the construction of two waste disposal sites. The quality of drinking water will improve due to the complete reconstruction of water pipelines and sewerage networks. The area of ​​green spaces will increase and air pollution will decrease. A significant reduction in the risk of man-made disasters is also predicted.

There will be a decrease in population morbidity and infant mortality. Effective implementation of the planned measures will reduce the number of diseases and reduce the total number of deaths. This, in turn, will reduce the burden on the working-age population and increase the efficiency of professional activities due to an increase in the birth rate and a decrease in mortality, as well as the influx of young migrants.

In the labor market, if a positive scenario is realized, we should expect increased competition for labor, which in the long term should lead to an increase in its cost. The labor market will dynamically transform due to the deployment of new economic sectors and the innovative development of existing ones in the city.

A positive population forecast, which assumes maximum birth rates and migration growth, minimum mortality rates, as well as the possibility of increasing the population through effective territorial development of the city, shows that the population of Rostov-on-Don can increase to 1,250 thousand inhabitants.

It is planned to intensively develop Greater Rostov on the basis of strategic planning documents, forming a single territory that will provide the most favorable conditions for production, business, life and recreation of people.

According to the Strategy for the socio-economic development of the Rostov region for the period until 2020, approved by Resolution of the Legislative Assembly of the Rostov Region dated October 30, 2007 N 2067, the Rostov agglomeration is the center of socio-economic development of the South of Russia and in the long term should expand its influence on the CIS countries and other regions . Within the framework of the positive scenario, it is predicted that its role will increase as an innovation, educational center, a center for providing management and consulting services, and the development of an external communications system - a multimodal transport hub.

A wide choice of places of employment, good living conditions, adequate wages and a high level of development of social sectors (primarily education) will provide city residents with the opportunity for self-realization, the opportunity to live a decent, interesting, varied life, will create conditions for sports and cultural recreation , tourism.

This scenario has a relatively high (50%) probability of implementation, the main prerequisites of which are: the significant socio-economic potential of the city, its favorable economic and geographical (including transport) position, a developed scientific and educational complex, as well as an active social economic policy of city and regional administrations at the present time.

4. Rationale for choosing the target scenario
socio-economic development

A comparative analysis of the main parameters of the forecasts under consideration (Table 2) allows us to conclude that the maximum risks for Rostov-on-Don are posed by a negative scenario, which not only does not imply further socio-economic development, but also entails the loss of the city’s main competitive advantages, loss of influence in the Southern Federal District. The implementation of this scenario will lead to a decrease in production potential and a decrease in the diversification of the real sector of the economy of Rostov-on-Don. The aggravation of the problem of irrational organization of intracity territory will negatively affect the pace of new construction, while the transport load will reach critical values. Significant deterioration of utilities, generating capacities and transport infrastructure will lead to a reduction in opportunities for production development and increased social tension. Already in 2017, Rostov-on-Don will lose its status as a city with a population of one million (Table 1), and the level of quality of life of the population will significantly decrease.

Table 1. Population forecast for Rostov-on-Don

scenarios	2008	2010	2015	2020	2025
negative	1048714	1036943	1008072	980206	953312
inertial	1048714	1038476	1017014	996146	975855
positive	1048714	1040009	1026022	1112322	1250875

The inertial scenario reflects the currently dominant trends in economic and social development and assumes movement along a previously established trajectory. Under this scenario, the position of Rostov-on-Don will be characterized by relative stability, however, the loss of the city’s promising opportunities will lead to a reduction in the high rates of development achieved. As part of the implementation of the inertial scenario, successes are likely in the mechanical engineering and food industries, in the work of social protection institutions, as well as in the functioning of the city as the largest transport hub in the south of Russia. At the same time, there will be an effect of accumulation and aggravation of existing problems. By 2020, the city's population will decrease to 996.1 thousand people, and the level of real incomes of city residents will remain at the existing level.

The positive scenario implies a much more complex management model for both government and business. This scenario assumes an active policy of local governments, coordinated with business entities and aimed at stimulating the introduction of innovations in the production and non-production sectors of the city’s economy, the development of scientific, educational and transport and logistics complexes, and ensuring a high quality of life.

If this scenario is implemented, the population of Rostov-on-Don may increase to 1,250 thousand inhabitants by 2025. The real incomes of residents will also increase, the choice of places to work will expand, and the poverty level will decrease. Optimization of production and social systems will make it possible to realize the competitive advantages of Rostov-on-Don on the scale of the Southern Federal District and Russia as a whole. Therefore, as a target option for socio-economic development in the Strategy, a scenario as close to positive as possible will be considered.

Table 2. Main parameters of socio-economic scenarios
development of Rostov-on-Don until 2025

	Negative	Inertial	Positive
Competitive aptitude economy	Decline competitive economics cities as among largest cities of Russia, and among major cities Southern federal districts. A loss existing positions in profile economic activities	Relatively high competitive profile economic activities. Level reduction competitive city's features among largest cities Russia	Significant growth competitive economics city ​​at the expense active implementation innovation. Consolidation capital status South of Russia and entry into top five most competitive ny megacities countries
Space- nal development cities	Exacerbation Problems territorial inequalities due to deficit land areas, irrational organizations urban space, underutilization Bolshoi resource Rostov	Reduction territorial inequality by use resources of the Bolshoi Rostov	Optimization territorial structures urban space, in including at the expense development of the Bolshoi Rostov. Balance territorial frame due to reorganization functional zones cities
Quality life and development human capital	Level reduction real income population and serious exacerbation existing social problems. Sharp decrease in level quality of life, social instability. Essential reduction number population	Relative social stability, average level development social sphere, relatively high social differentiation	Sustainable growth investment in person, quality development human capital, growth level welfare population, decline social differentiation
Urban infrastructure ra	Essential deterioration state urban infrastructure, in including at the expense critical transport load on road network, high worn out fixed assets housing-communal- ly infrastructure and shortage generating capacities	Limitation infrastructure city ​​development, associated with low quality urban environment. Absence systematic approach in attempts modernization existing infrastructure, which leads to irrational spending significant resources at absence significant results	Qualitative improvement state urban infrastructure, in incl. solution Problems transport workload, modernization housing and communal services facilities, increase generating capacity.

North Caucasus Federal District

It is assumed that under the base scenario, security problems can be resolved over the next 5 to 10 years, which will significantly hinder the development of one of the most attractive sectors of the economy - tourism, as well as limit the influx of private investment in other sectors. In this situation, priority attention will be paid to the development of the agro-industrial, metallurgical and fuel and energy complexes, as well as related sectors of the economy such as the chemical and oil refining industries, and mechanical engineering. The main emphasis will be on improving the investment climate for large corporations and the development of infrastructure projects with a predominant share of government funding, as well as on the implementation of large-scale programs to support small and medium-sized businesses.

The main parameters of the basic scenario are:

technological modernization and increasing the competitiveness of the agro-industrial, fuel and energy and machine-building complex, metallurgical and chemical industries;

realizing the transit potential of the North Caucasus Federal District through the development of appropriate transport infrastructure;

achieving the target values ​​of all federal target programs operating in the North Caucasus Federal District;

development at the level of planned indicators of the tourism cluster in the Stavropol Territory;

a gradual decrease in interethnic tension and terrorist activity with a further increase in the investment attractiveness of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation that are part of the North Caucasus Federal District.

The average annual growth rate of the gross regional product of the North Caucasus Federal District in the base scenario will be 6.7 percent, the growth rate of industrial production volumes will be 8.7 percent per year in the period from 2010 to 2025.

The implementation of the base scenario will lead to the following changes in the main socio-economic indicators of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation that are part of the North Caucasus Federal District by 2025 compared to 2008:

gross regional product will increase from 79 to 172 thousand rubles per capita;

the average nominal accrued salary will increase from 9.6 to 18.6 thousand rubles per month;

the official unemployment rate will decrease from 16 to 9 percent;

the share of the population with cash incomes below the subsistence level will decrease from 16.5 to 10.9 percent;

consolidated budget income per capita will increase from 5.1 to 17.5 thousand rubles per person;

The baseline scenario also assumes the following improvements in quality of life indicators by 2025 compared to 2008 indicators:

housing supply will increase from 17.1 to 20 sq. meters per capita;

the provision of hospital beds will increase from 79 to 80 units per 10 thousand people;

the provision of outpatient care will increase from 174 to 200 visits per 10 thousand people;

the provision of higher medical personnel will increase from 41 to 43 doctors per 10 thousand people;

the provision of paramedical personnel will increase from 87 to 90 employees per 10 thousand people;

provision of the population with fixed telephone communications will increase from 1042 thousand to 3131 thousand subscriber numbers;

The provision of the population with mobile telephone communications will increase from 9038 to 21173 thousand subscriber numbers.

The development of small and medium-sized businesses within the base scenario is characterized by:

an increase in the number of small and medium-sized enterprises from 3.4 in 2008 to 17 units per 1 thousand people by 2025;

increasing the number of employees in small and medium-sized enterprises from 317 to 990 thousand people (23 percent of the total number of employees) by 2025;

achieving the share of gross regional product created by small and medium-sized businesses to 25 - 35 percent by 2025.

The implementation of the base scenario will also lead to an increase in demand for electricity in the district to almost 60 billion kW . h by 2025 (compared to 24 billion kW . h in 2008).

In Russian practice, when developing planning documents, three main scenarios for the development of the territory are often distinguished:

• 1) business as usual scenario - focused on the development of the municipality under the influence of the trends that emerged at the beginning of the forecast period, assumes sluggish processes of reforming economic relations, conservation of existing contradictions, and a passive attitude towards the future of the municipality on the part of the subjects of territorial planning and management;
• 2) recovery scenario - involves a transition from an inertial to an innovative path. At this stage, the groundwork or the so-called critical mass is being formed for the transition of the economy to a new level of development, including new forms and methods of promoting local producers in foreign markets, the development of production clusters;
• 3) innovative scenario - focused on the development trajectory of the municipality, which is fundamentally different from the pre-planned period. It involves the modernization of the economy, as well as the formation of new relations between the civil community, business and government.

For the first two of three scenarios, it is necessary to formulate the following scenario conditions:

• 1. Inertial (base) scenario. The development trend of the municipality will continue, approved measures and existing target programs included in the budget will be implemented. Forecasting methods - trend method.
• 2. Recovery scenario. In addition to existing target programs, all activities of the Program for the socio-economic development of the municipality will be adopted and implemented. Forecasting methods - the method of expert assessments, the method of trends.

To calculate forecast parameters in scenarios, the following economic assumptions should also be taken into account:

• 1. For business as usual scenario:
  • - the crisis has passed, the rate of decline in manufacturing production in the economy of the Russian Federation as a whole has slowed down;
  • - significant economic growth is not expected for the next year or two, without taking into account the implementation of key activities of the Program being developed, including subprograms.
• 2. For recovery scenario:
  • - individual subprograms will be successfully implemented;
  • - at the stage of organizing the activities of the Program, the rate of economic growth (including industrial production, construction, small business) will be minimal or a slight drop will be noted;
  • - as a result of the implementation of subprograms, growth rates in economic sectors will be noted.

The main indicators of changes in the socio-economic situation in a municipality should be:

• - volume of industrial production;
• - retail trade turnover;
• - volume of investment (in fixed capital) from all sources of financing, including small enterprises;
• - number of people employed in the economy, including small businesses;
• - real disposable cash income of the population, as a percentage of the previous year;
• - growth in municipal budget revenues (increasing the share of own income, reducing subsidies to equalize the city budget).

In the process of writing municipal development scenarios, the following must be taken into account:

• 1. For business as usual scenario The forecast developed by employees of the municipal administration should be taken as a basis. Adjust taking into account the opinion of specialists (experts) - project implementers.
• 2. Forecast of indicators for recovery scenario must be done using the two methods mentioned above. In this case, the trend method is first applied, which takes into account the trends in the macroeconomic development of the country (for example, data on the main indicators of socio-economic development of Russia for 9 months of the current year) and forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation (inflation level, decline in GDP, industrial production, federal budget revenues ).
• 3. Forecast by recovery scenario must be finally agreed upon with the economists of the municipal administration: the deputy head of the administration for economic issues, the head of the department of architecture and urban planning, and the municipal property management committee. The forecast of municipal budget indicators must be coordinated in detail and adjusted with the finance department. Thus, the maximum number of departments and divisions of the administration should be involved in the process of developing a recovery scenario.
• 4. To check assumptions about tax revenues received additionally from the implementation of program activities, it is necessary to calculate the tax base for budget-forming taxes of the municipality.

IN forecasting process for a municipality, as mentioned above, it is necessary to use two methods:

• 1) method of expert assessments, based on taking into account the opinions of experts, i.e. specialists in the field of economics and management;
• 2) trend method- a quantitative forecasting method, which is based on taking into account trends in changes in any indicator or event over previous periods. Based on this, the trend is extrapolated to future periods.

Predicted values ​​of municipal development indicators must be presented in tabular form (Table 10).

Table 10.

Forecast values ​​of municipal development indicators according to two scenarios

Index		Scenarios	Reporting		Forecast period			Total for 3 years, %
				(grade)
Volume of shipped goods (works, services) in the field of industrial production, in current prices
		Restorative
Industrial production index
		Restorative
Construction, % compared to the previous year in comparable prices
		Restorative
Commissioning of residential buildings
		Restorative
Retail trade turnover, in current prices
At comparable prices, as a percentage of the previous year
		Restorative
Number of small enterprises (SE) - total
		Restorative
Quantity individual entrepreneurs
Average number of employees employed at small enterprises - total
		Restorative
Volume of goods and services sold by small enterprises
		Restorative

To visualize the scenario results, the forecast result data should be presented in graphical form: line graph, histogram and bubble chart.

When developing municipal development scenarios, special attention must be paid to budget indicators. This is of key importance in public management. In the practice of commercial companies, this is not so important, since planning is not carried out strictly, financing of expenses depends on sales revenue. Financial decisions are often made quickly. On the contrary, large corporations, as well as federal, regional and local budgets, are distinguished by special (strict) execution discipline. All changes undergo a certain procedure and are approved in the form of a law (state level) or a decision (municipal level) adopted by legislative bodies: the Federal Assembly or meetings of local deputies (municipal level).

Here it is advisable to predict the indicators of income and expenditure of the municipal budget according to two scenarios - basic and recovery (Table 11).

Table 11.

Municipal budget indicators

_(thousand roubles.)

Index	Scenarios	Reporting period		Forecast period
1. Budget revenues - total
	Restorative
Tax and non-tax revenues (own funds)
	Restorative
Including:
tax
	Restorative
non-tax
	Restorative
Volume of gratuitous receipts
	Restorative

Index	Scenarios	Reporting period		Forecast period
(funds received within the framework of interbudgetary relations)
Including:
subsidies and subventions
subsidies to equalize budgetary security
2. Expenses
budget - total	Restorative
3. Scarcity
	Restorative
4. Ownership share
foreign revenues in total budget revenues, %	Restorative

Baseline budget figures are presented based on the official forecast, which is compiled using the index method. The recovery scenario was calculated by adding the effect from the implementation of individual subprograms of the municipality. Further adjustments can be made using the expert method.

• See: Formation of comprehensive programs for the socio-economic development of municipalities: educational and methodological manual / V. I. Ivankov, A. V. Kvashnin, V. I. Psarev, T. V. Psareva; under general ed. T. V. Psareva. - P. 141.

The Bank of Russia has rewritten the scenarios for the development of the Russian economy. The new optimistic scenario assumes oil prices at $60/barrel. in 2016. In the previous report, such prices were included in a stress scenario

Bank of Russia (Photo: Vyacheslav Prokofiev/TASS)

On Friday, September 11, the Central Bank presented new scenarios for the development of the Russian economy - they were published in the “Main Directions of Monetary Policy for 2016-2018”. The regulator reduced the number of scenarios from six to three, with the new optimistic scenario being close to the stress scenario from the previous report, published in November 2014. The only thing that remains unchanged, despite the noticeable worsening of forecasts, is the regulator’s intention to reduce inflation in 2017 to the target level of 4%.

The development of the Russian economy and the regulator’s monetary policy over the next three years will be determined mainly by external factors, according to the published report. The main one is oil prices. Moreover, all scenarios assume “the maintenance of sanctions and existing restrictions on the import of certain types of imported goods,” as well as the continuation of conservative budget and tariff policies, the document says.

Basic, rather pessimistic scenario

The basic scenario developed by the Central Bank assumes that the average annual price level for Urals oil will remain around $50 per barrel. throughout the entire three-year period. “At these prices, the growth rate of the Russian economy will remain slightly negative in 2016, and then will gradually recover,” Central Bank Chairman Elvira Nabiullina noted during a press conference following a meeting of the board of directors.

According to the regulator’s forecasts, if the base scenario is implemented, GDP will decrease by 3.9-4.4% this year, by 0.5-1% next year, and will begin to grow in 2017. The Central Bank expects a reversal of the negative trend in the Russian economy in the second half of 2016, Nabiullina said. “The domestic economy is undergoing processes of adaptation to new external conditions, to a significant reduction in income from foreign economic activity, this adaptation will take some time,” she said. And the preservation of restrained dynamics of domestic demand relative to stable exchange rate dynamics and inflation expectations will lead to inflation next year dropping to 5.5-6.5%, the Central Bank is confident.

The Central Bank's previous baseline scenario, published in November 2014, assumed average annual oil prices in 2015 to be $95, GDP growth to be zero, and inflation to reach 6.2-6.4% by the end of the year. The forecast did not coincide with reality: so far, average annual oil prices are about $55 per barrel. GDP, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, will decrease by 3.3%. The Central Bank itself raised its inflation forecast for 2015 to 13%.

The new basic scenario of the Central Bank is close to the forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development, which were announced by the Minister of Economic Development Alexey Ulyukaev on August 25. “We are adjusting expectations for 2015 and 2016 towards some deterioration. In 2015, we expect a decline of 3.3%,” the minister said. Before the correction, the forecast assumed a fall of 2.8% in 2015. In 2016, Ulyukaev expects growth of 1-2% (previously 2.3%). The price of oil, according to the new forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, will be $55 per barrel in 2016 (previously $60), and in 2017 and 2018 - $60 (previously $65 and $70).

The main scenario of the Central Bank can be called “realistic and even, rather, pessimistic,” says Vladimir Tikhomirov, chief economist of the FG BCS. “Just a month ago, everyone considered the scenario that the Central Bank laid down as a base one to be pessimistic. The regulator has taken a more cautious position regarding future events, factoring in geopolitical risks over a long period of time, low oil prices and economic growth rates, as well as high inflation expectations,” he says.

The chief economist for Russia and the CIS at Renaissance Capital, Oleg Kuzmin, calls the Central Bank’s base scenario “cautious.” “Together with the optimistic, they create a range of realistic forecasts from the Central Bank for the next three years,” he says.

Stressful scenario

For the third time this year, the Bank of Russia has changed the parameters of the scenario, which it considers stressful. In November last year, when oil prices were at $75-80 per barrel, the regulator for the first time developed a stress scenario, assuming a drop in oil prices to $60 per barrel. The regulator assessed its likelihood as low. “The purpose of this is to draw a shock scenario in order to work out some actions that will need to be taken to limit the negative consequences,” explained the first deputy chairman of the Central Bank, Ksenia Yudaeva. In March, when oil prices dropped to $55 per barrel, the regulator decided to revise the parameters of the stress scenario, based on an oil price of $40 per barrel. Currently, the Central Bank considers “stress” to be the maintenance of the average annual oil price below $40 per barrel. for three years.

If the stress scenario is implemented, the negative impact on the economy will manifest itself “through a reduction in export revenues, a deterioration in the solvency of borrowers with debt in foreign currency, a decrease in the attractiveness of investments in the Russian economy for Russian and foreign investors, as well as through a limitation in the ability to finance budget expenditures,” it says in the published document. Under these conditions, the decline in GDP in 2016 may exceed 5%, and the economic growth trajectory may only occur in 2018, Nabiullina noted.

The scenario assumes growth volatility in financial markets and possible “a sharp deterioration in exchange rate and inflation expectations, which significantly increases inflation and financial stability risks,” the report says. According to Nabiullina , the implementation of a stress scenario will require a stricter monetary policy, and to prevent risks, the Bank of Russia can use both interest rate policy measures and foreign exchange interventions, the head of the Central Bank assured.

Tikhomirov considers the scenario in which the oil price will be below $40 per barrel for a long period unlikely. According to him, oil prices may fall below $40 per barrel at the moment, but they are unlikely to remain so throughout the year. “With low oil prices, all oil producers will face serious difficulties, some will face serious losses. Then not only the economy of Russia, but also of many other countries will suffer. In such conditions, oil producers will coordinate their actions to support oil prices,” explains Tikhomirov.

Cautious optimism

The optimistic scenario of the Central Bank assumes a gradual increase in prices for Urals oil to $70-80 per barrel in 2018. Next year prices will be at $60/barrel. “Improving foreign trade conditions against the backdrop of rising oil prices will determine the real ruble exchange rate to be at a higher level than in the base scenario,” the report says, but specific forecasts for the ruble exchange rate are not provided in any of the scenarios. Favorable exchange rate dynamics, lower inflation expectations and moderate growth in consumer demand will ensure a slowdown in inflation to the target level of 4% in 2017-2018, with a faster reduction of the Bank of Russia key rate than in the baseline scenario.

At the same time, only if the optimistic scenario is implemented, the Central Bank will be able to gradually return to increasing gold and foreign exchange reserves, which will grow by $15 billion annually in 2016-2018. “We will buy reserves in case of a favorable situation on the foreign exchange market, when we do not create additional volatility and do not influence trends in the foreign exchange market. Our operations are in no way tied to any specific exchange rate or oil price level,” explained the head of the Central Bank.

Even if the optimistic scenario is implemented, “the economy will operate in more difficult external conditions than before and face difficult challenges,” Nabiullina noted, once again calling for structural changes in the economy. “Now we need structural changes that will create incentives for economic development: redistribution of resources to more competitive segments, development of import substitution, non-resource exports, new technologies, increasing the level of human capital,” noted the head of the Central Bank.

Head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina:

“In all scenarios, we intend to reduce inflation in 2017 to the target level of 4%.”

“It is important to understand that even in the best case (an optimistic scenario), the Russian economy in the coming years will operate in more difficult external conditions than before and face difficult challenges. Therefore, now we need structural changes that will create incentives for economic development: redistribution of resources to more competitive segments, development of import substitution, non-resource exports, new technologies, and increasing the level of human capital.”

“The domestic economy is undergoing processes of adaptation to new external conditions, to a significant reduction in income from foreign economic activity, this adaptation will take some time.”

“We will buy gold and foreign exchange reserves in case of a favorable situation on the foreign exchange market, when we do not create additional volatility and do not influence trends in the foreign exchange market. Our operations are in no way tied to any specific exchange rate or oil price level.”

“We do not see a trend for further weakening of the exchange rate; we have increased volatility, including that associated with increased volatility in oil prices.”