Will there be an exchange of money this year? Behavior of people in the regions. Distinguish between complete and partial monetary reform

More and more often you can hear talk about carrying out monetary reform in the Russian Federation, while it began back in 2014.

Today this topic is most relevant, because the country is going through difficult times:

there is a crisis

there is a fever in the foreign exchange market,

the inflation rate is quite significant...

Given these parameters, no one will be surprised that citizens are worried about carrying out the reform within the framework of 2017.

Options proposed by the government

Currency reform can be carried out in several forms, and all of them are considered equally by Russians:

Devaluation,

Deflation,

Let's add the following options here:

Nullification,

Ruble denomination.

Plus, do not forget about the complete replacement of the national currency.

Whatever point we take, it is capable of negatively influencing the development of Russia, and this means the standard of living of citizens.

If we look at the most recent forecasts from experts, we don’t have to think about devaluation and redenomination, but we have repeatedly thought about replacing the authorities. However, this is not an easy undertaking; it will also require significant infusions of funds.

Why might such a reform be needed at all? Experts agree that it will streamline the movement of finances, coupled with strengthening stability (in financial terms), but the methods of implementation directly depend on the economic situation within the Russian Federation and the geopolitical situation.

Should we expect reform in 2017?

It is still difficult to say unequivocally whether this event will take place in 2017. If we analyze the latest news and data, we can conclude that, despite the best wishes of the authorities, there is simply... not enough money for this. In addition, it is too early to call Russia’s condition excessively bad.

Today, citizens are making every effort to improve the situation of the Motherland, for example, the intellectual club “Breakthrough Ideas” has drawn up a plan for the development of Russia, consisting of 20 detailed parts, which offers real opportunities for solving pressing problems.

The current fever in the foreign exchange market is the result of sanctions, and until they sink into oblivion, the ruble simply has no chance of restoring its position. So far, there are no prerequisites for currency replacement or devaluation, so it is too early to think about financial turmoil in 2017.

Expert opinion

If we recall the last reform of this kind, it was carried out back in 98, it was then that a default was declared, and, according to forecasts, there is no need to expect it in the near future. The country has enough opportunities, and the external debt is not catastrophic.

If this event took place, then Russian citizens could lose confidence in their own national currency, which would provoke an increased threat of default or hyperinflation, plus, no one needs panic among the population. Yes, the authorities quite often think about this, and in different vectors: they discuss both a complete replacement of the currency, like, say, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and a change of units.

Many Russians recall empty store shelves, shortages, and lost savings in the nineties. At that time, significant inflation was an indicator of impending changes. The government denied the rumors about the reform, but in the summer the exchange of Soviet-style banknotes still took place.

It is not surprising that in the current situation this option comes to mind: the economic crisis, rising prices, depreciation of the ruble against the currency and denials from the leadership cannot but alert citizens who have experienced two monetary reforms at once.

In the article, we propose to consider how reasonable the assumptions are and whether monetary reform is possible in Russia in 2017. To do this, let's first turn to theory.

Currency reform is usually understood as some kind of forced transformation of the existing monetary system, the consequence of which is the replacement of existing monetary units. The likelihood of carrying out a monetary reform increases during periods of economic recovery, and the main goal is precisely its stabilization.

Main reform measures:

Nullification: withdrawal of depreciated money from circulation and introduction of new banknotes.
Restoration: restoration of the gold backing of the monetary unit.
Denomination: change in the denomination of money.
Devaluation: depreciation of local money against foreign currencies.

The main reasons providing for the need for monetary reform are as follows:

political (for example, state formation);
economic (to spur economic growth, hyperinflation);
psychological (increasing confidence in the currency).

To understand, it is useful to consider one of the main reasons for the 1993 reform. After the collapse of the Union, the former Soviet republics had the opportunity to print USSR currencies. But at the same time, everyone wanted to switch to new money. The Russian government was unable to control the unsecured money flowing out of the CIS countries. The only solution at that time could only be a monetary reform with the replacement of the old rubles. Another question is that it was held unexpectedly and during the holidays.

A distinction is made between complete and partial monetary reform.

Is monetary reform expected in Russia in 2017? and in what form? Next year, redenomination and devaluation seem most likely. Proponents of this assumption point to economic reasons that have been occurring and growing since 2014:

Inflation caused by low prices for petroleum products on the world market. A further fall could provoke depreciation of the ruble and hyperinflation. This can lead to denominationalism.
Russian foreign policy, economic sanctions of the European Union and the unattractiveness of the country from an investment point of view will spur the collapse of the ruble against currencies.
The budget deficit will further lead to the inability to pay off the external debt and an uncontrolled rise in prices.

However, there are also anti-reasons that explain that the 2017 monetary reform in the Russian Federation impractical under current conditions. In addition to the fact that the policy pursued by the current Government does not imply such a solution and everything possible is being done to stabilize, there are several more points:

These are just some of the reasons that explain the low likelihood that monetary reform will take place in Russia in 2017. The latest news, voicing the point of view of the country's leadership, quotes the head of the Central Bank, who spoke very categorically about rumors about a possible monetary reform. The Government represented by the President and Prime Minister has a similar position, namely the impossibility of carrying it out in Russia.

Which point of view to adhere to is up to everyone to decide for themselves. Having voiced both sides, we can only hope that our country will not face this kind of shock in the future.

In the article we propose to consider how reasonable the assumptions andIs monetary reform possible in Russia in 2017?To do this, let's first turn to theory.

What is currency reform?

Main reform measures:

Nullification: withdrawal of depreciated money from circulation and introduction of new banknotes.
Restoration: restoration of the gold backing of the monetary unit.
Denomination: change in the denomination of money.
Devaluation: depreciation of local money against foreign currencies.

Causes

The main reasons providing for the need for monetary reform are as follows:

political (for example, state formation);
economic (to spur economic growth, hyperinflation);
psychological (increasing confidence in the currency).

Kinds

A distinction is made between complete and partial monetary reform.

Possible reasons for reform in 2017

Inflation caused by low prices for petroleum products on the world market. A further fall could provoke depreciation of the ruble and hyperinflation. This can lead to denominationalism.
Russian foreign policy, economic sanctions of the European Union and the unattractiveness of the country from an investment point of view will spur the collapse of the ruble against currencies.
The budget deficit will further lead to the inability to pay off the external debt and an uncontrolled rise in prices.

What to expect?

However, there are also anti reasons that explain thatmonetary reform 2017 in the Russian Federation impractical under current conditions. In addition to the fact that the policy pursued by the current Government does not imply such a solution and everything possible is being done to stabilize, there are several more points:

These are just some of the reasons that explain the low likelihood that this will happen.monetary reform in Russia in 2017. Last news,voicing the point of view of the country's leadership, quote the words of the head of the Central Bank, who spoke very categorically about rumors about a possible monetary reform. The Government represented by the President and Prime Minister has a similar position, namely the impossibility of carrying it out in Russia.

Which point of view to adhere to is up to everyone to decide for themselves.Having voiced both sides, we can only hope that our country will not face this kind of shock in the future.

For several years now, Russia has been experiencing a difficult economic and political situation. What and what factors is this due to? First of all, the sudden economic crisis, the sharp decline of the economy itself and its main industries, the sanctions imposed on our country by its Western neighbors, as well as the collapse of the ruble, which is a kind of consequence of all this negativity. It is worth noting that quite recently our country experienced and was able to cope with the world’s worst crisis and default. Based on this, Russians logically have a question: will money change in 2017 in Russia, and how such a change could affect the entire situation as a whole.

Last news.

If we analyze the entire situation and the situation as a whole, we can safely say and declare that Russia is a completely solvent country. And what As for the gold and reserve fund, it is replenished annually, and, therefore, at the present time there is no need to carry out monetary reform. It is worth noting that Russia regularly extracts natural reserves and uses them not only for the needs of the population, but also sells them to other countries, thereby replenishing the treasury. But, despite all the assurances from the government of the Russian Federation, it is human nature to worry and constantly worry about their future and well-being. That is why this is sometimes the main reason for the excitement when the demand for equipment, cars, real estate and gold increases. How to understand this? People simply try and try to invest the small capital they have into something necessary and worthwhile, so as not to lose it, and they do not depreciate. But, from the point of view of experts and specialists, such a decision is not correct, since at the peak of the crisis this contributes to a greater extent to the rise in prices, and at the time of the fall, all these same goods become several times cheaper.

In order to carry out a monetary reform in the country, it is necessary to spend a rather impressive and substantial amount of money, and, as you know, the country is currently going through very difficult times, so it is unlikely to allocate and spend capital on carrying out a completely meaningless monetary reform.

It is worth noting that today there is no talk of the country getting out of its difficult situation in the near future, but there is no talk of default or redenomination yet. According to forecasts of analysts and experts, the country's economy is slowly but surely beginning to gradually emerge from the current situation. Despite the rather rosy and positive development prospects, Russians still want to be confident in their future and the safety of their savings. In order to somehow protect themselves, some make big purchases, others, on the contrary, invest their existing savings in the purchase of foreign currency and at the same time try to withdraw all available capital from banks. Although experts argue that such an action causes even more inconvenience and undermines the already precarious and unstable situation in the country’s economy and politics.

Belarus, and will money be changed here?

As for our neighboring country, Belarus, the policy here is aimed at carrying out monetary reform. The first step today is the successful denomination of the country's main currency. According to the presidential decree, the essence of the reform is to replace and withdraw from circulation banknotes issued in 2000 and completely replace them with banknotes of 2009, in the equivalent of 10,000:1. In simple and accessible language, this means that today 100 rubles will be equal to a coin of 1 kopeck. According to the new monetary reform, the country will have monetary units and banknotes equal to the following equivalents. These are 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200 and 500 rubles; as for small units, there will be 1, 2, 5, 10, 20 and 50 kopecks, 1 and 2 rubles. On the issue of design and appearance of the Belarusian currency, it has been established that the basis is the project “Maya Krajina - Belarus”. As for old banknotes, they will only be valid until a certain point in time prescribed by law. It is worth noting that such a monetary reform can also cause a number of indignations among the population, as well as significant changes in prices.

Considering recent events, monetary reform in Russia in 2019 is quite likely, since only radical economic and political steps will curb the growth of protest sentiments in society. The situation today is so catastrophic that all means are good to strengthen the ruble, including denomination. By crossing out two zeros from a 1000-ruble bill today, one can greatly increase its authority in the international market. Although, of course, the main thing is to increase its authority among the population itself, which is increasingly feeling the chill from the impending events.

Denomination, of course, plays a more psychological role. However, it also has real advantages. For example, the population actively transfers savings to banks in order to avoid an unpleasant exchange procedure. During the period of monetary reform in Russia, deposits will increase significantly, which, in fact, is what is needed at the present stage, when the main business has simply stopped. In addition, part of the old savings in physical terms, which our citizens traditionally store in a mattress, will inevitably burn out during the denomination, especially if the terms of such an exchange are limited. Accordingly, the value of money increases.

Will there be monetary reform in Russia in 2019?

On the other hand, the 2019 monetary reform in Russia through redenomination may be only part of the PR program so beloved by our president. Everyone understands that by crossing out a few zeros on a banknote, it is impossible to increase production and profitable sectors of the economy. After all, modern money expresses the economic strength of the state. While 1 dollar costs more than 60 rubles, our country is 60 times weaker than the US economy. And if you artificially change the denomination of the national currency, the economy will not become stronger. Moreover, after some time the currency will fall back to its previous level.

Will there be a currency reform in Russia in 2019? There are no prerequisites for it yet. But just before, the government may still take this step. The late Boris Nikolayevich Yeltsin did the same before the 1998 default. And then, it must be admitted, the reform really played a certain role, since the economy at that time was also already breathing its last. How, in fact, he still breathes.

To survive a monetary reform, if they suddenly start talking about it, it is best to invest money in some very liquid object. Which will always be in demand, regardless of crisis situations.