Stepan Demura, biography - who is he really?

Stepan Demura is an experienced expert in the field of financial markets. However, his predictions do not always come true and in almost all cases go against the opinion of the majority of world experts.

School and student years of the expert

Stepan Demura was born in the capital city of Russia in August 1967. He graduated from school with success, constantly defending his position in front of anyone. From an early age, he showed assertiveness and often brought any matter to a worldwide conclusion. In those years, the boy began to show interest in the financial system, but after school he decided to enroll as a rocket scientist at the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology. But this circumstance did not in any way affect his desire to analyze the financial system. The young man studied English, and the stock exchange system finally won his heart. Demura recalls that even then a lot of remarkable opportunities were swirling in his head, but he could not bring them to life due to financial problems.

The specialist with honors was immediately noted by foreign colleagues and invited to work at a research university in Chicago. Demura agreed and went to live in America.

Work in America

After a year of internship abroad, Stepan Demura was hired by Sheridan Investments LLC, where a year later he became the head of a department dealing exclusively with global market research. The 90s became a real triumph in professional activity for the expert:

1992 - a lot of opportunities open up for the analyst to implement his ideas, since this year Russia enters world markets;

1994 - Stepan’s career ladder rises higher and higher, and he becomes first a consultant and then a leading securities trader in a state-owned American company. Soon he is offered the position of leading analyst in this area.

Twelve years after starting his career with Stepan Demura returns to Russia.

Work at home

After returning to Moscow, the expert continues to work with the stock market. After some time, Stepan Gennadievich began managing the property of the Russian Investment Club company, being also a member of the Arlan company.

For the first time, viewers were able to see him on television in 2006. Then he tried to tell the public about his calculations on the state of the world market. According to his calculations, a global crisis was supposed to occur in 2008. But against the backdrop of the general development of many industries, no one took his words seriously. But, continuing to defend his position, within two years the expert announces a possible mortgage collapse in the United States, which will affect residents in all countries. After a few months, his words became reality and he began to gain popularity.

The expert gives his bright forecasts based on the Elliott wave theory, which shows the dynamics of exchange instruments on graphical models.

Such a promising analyst was noticed by an oligarch and the owner of a TV channel, who offered him a position as a TV presenter in two popular TV programs at once: “Dialogue” and “Markets”.

However, in 2012, the TV channel had to terminate the contract with the scandalous Stepan Gennadyevich, since Demura began to make various kinds of “blunders” on air and often allowed himself to express himself in inappropriate ways.

Until 2015, after leaving television, the analyst worked at Ekho Moskvy radio. There he hosted his own show. However, the project was closed, and today Stepan Gennadievich gives seminars on finance in Russia and European countries.

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The personality of Stepan Demura causes a lot of controversy among politicians and economists. His categorical statements excite the minds of ordinary residents and draw them into endless disputes.

Biography

Stepan was born into a Moscow family in 1967. From an early age, the boy was distinguished by childish wisdom, reasoning and the ability to convey his point of view correctly and constructively. He also loved to defend his peers in conflict situations. At school they respected him and listened to his remarks.

The guy began to be interested in financial analytics in high school. But after school, Stepan did not go to study as an economist, but entered the capital’s Institute of Physics and Mathematics, Faculty of Rocket Science. She is also engaged in self-education, studying English and studying finance at the same time. Now in his interviews, the man admits that he had enough ambitions, but there was not enough money to realize them.

After graduating from university, he received a specialty as a rocket engineer. His thesis attracted the interest of colleagues from the University of Chicago, who invited him to continue his master's studies at their institution. Stepan doubted for a long time. The uncertainty lay in the level of knowledge of the English language, but nevertheless I decided and left Russia.

Career in the USA

After a year of study, Stepan Demura felt confident in the language and got a job at Sheridan Investments LLC. This company analyzed global financial markets. In the early 90s, Demura established himself as an analyst. And two years later he was invited to a government structure that studies and controls US bonds.

From a simple ordinary worker, in a few years he managed to grow to a leading trader, and then became a leading specialist in the field of securities analytics.

In parallel with his government work, Stepan Demura is engaged in teaching at the University of Chicago. He was held in high esteem among students and colleagues as a knowledgeable specialist, always able to explain complex things in simple terms.

Career at home

After 12 years of successful work, Stepan returned to Moscow, where he began researching the Russian stock market. The invaluable experience he gained abroad allowed him to feel confident in the field of numbers, finance and analysis. Another branch of his activity is the analysis of gold mining.

2006 became a landmark year for Stepan. He appeared on television and announced an imminent global crisis. But then it looked like a “horror story” that would never happen. Indeed, at that time all sectors of the economy were experiencing their peak, new commercial buildings were being built, supermarkets were opening, and banks were offering a wide range of credit products.

At the beginning of 2008, he once again tried to convey information about the future crisis, but even then his words did not resonate. The basis for making such statements emerged from deep knowledge of the global financial system.

But, as you know, his predictions came true, and very quickly.

A television

These forecasts made him famous in the world of finance and politics, and his compatriots recognized him as an experienced expert. The business channel RBC-TV invited Stepan to host several financial programs.

But Stepan often used the opportunity of the channel and shocked at its expense. His predictions came true less and less often, and once he made a not very correct comment about the financial analysts of the same channel. This led to the channel’s management not keeping such an employee and terminating the cooperation contract with him.

After this, Stepan Demura organized his own program, which he hosted on the radio “Echo Moscow-Vologda. The program also found its audience, and Stepan gained many listeners.

Personal life

This side of an analyst's life is hidden from the public. From some sources it is known that he is married and has two daughters.

He does not have any hobbies or interesting hobbies. His work is his favorite hobby.

Social pages

Stepan Demura in VKontakte has official group - https://vk.com/stepan_demura. This is an open group where every member can post or comment. Demura also opened more than 400 discussions on VKontakte, in which anyone can participate.
Demura on VKontakte has 32 thousand followers from different countries of the post-Soviet space.

Twitter analyst - https://twitter.com/demura_stepan. A “live” page, which the owner actively maintains, creates new tweets in the form of the most current news, analytical statements in the political and financial spheres. Demura has 33 thousand followers on Twitter.
Stepan Demura has a personal Facebook page - https://www.facebook.com/StepanDemura. The videos on the wall are constantly commented on by social network users.

In addition, the analyst has his own Demura TV website - http://demura.tv and a YouTube channel - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XA4gWchKYAk, which contain a selection of videos from his performances.

Unfortunately, we were unable to find either official or personal pages on Odnoklassniki and Instagram.

Stepan Demura is an interesting person. They like to invite him to political and financial programs. Very often he can be seen live, where he works in question-and-answer mode from the population.

The well-known Russian trader, as well as financial analyst and commentator Stepan Demura, in an interview given to the Business Gazeta publication, discussed the situation with the new, unprecedentedly harsh sanctions imposed by the United States on Russia, and also made a disappointing forecast regarding the future of the ruble, the exchange rate of which is relative to the dollar may soon rise to 120 rubles.

Sanctions will deal a severe blow to the Russian economy

In his commentary, Demura paints a bleak outlook for the Russian economy in light of the new American stations: as we know, many in Russia harbor hopes that, like the previous ones, they will have only a limited effect. Demura is in a hurry to dispel these hopes. According to him, the new package of sanctions seriously strengthens American positions in relation to Russia, which, already to a large extent, was cut off from global financial markets after 2104. New sanctions bring this situation to its logical conclusion, therefore, after Trump signs these sanctions, “of which no one doubts,” this will first kill the ruble: investors will no longer be able to play carry trade with Russian sovereign obligations and corporate securities, “ thus, these sanctions will simply destroy the Russian financial market,” says Demura. Secondly, the Russian treasury will begin to have serious problems due to a decrease in gas and oil revenues. The expert repeats that the new sanctions are very serious, and only very stupid and not far-sighted people can laugh at them. And, worst of all, the sanctions regime against Russia has been established seriously and for a long time - not one of the presidents, not Trump himself, nor any next president, according to the approved text of the new law, has the right, without the consent of the legislative branch, to cancel or change by his own decision anti-Russian sanctions. “They have now become part of American law, sanctions after which can only be lifted by Congress.” In addition, in the end, things may come to the point that the West will refuse to lend to Russia at all, which will hit the ruble very hard, especially taking into account the upcoming payments on the debts of Gazprom Rosneft and other state corporations. According to the expert, in a normal situation, debts are refinanced - that is, new loans are taken out to pay off old debts. If the West decides to stop lending to borrowers from Russia altogether, then in order to pay off debts they will have to give up foreign exchange reserves, which, as you understand, will hit the ruble very hard.
As for the consequences for the Russian economy as a whole, they will be truly destructive. Due to a lack of funds in the Russian budget, problems have already arisen with financing government projects; access to advanced technologies will be even more difficult. Corporate defaults can be expected. Our “favorite” oligarchs already have liabilities exceeding their assets, and new sanctions only worsen this situation. Demura also commented on official statistics and reports from the government and the Central Bank, according to which the macroeconomic situation in the country looks quite stable. According to him, all such forecasts are of little value. Usually everything happens exactly the opposite, says Demura, and continues: “if the authorities assure you that everything is fine, then expect another financial and economic collapse.” According to Demura, this collapse is really just around the corner, and the first victim of this collapse will be the ruble. Moreover, oddly enough, the upcoming collapse of the ruble is not directly related to anti-Russian sanctions: the ruble will collapse in the near future on its own. First of all, this is due to the current situation in global financial markets, mainly in the debt markets of developing countries, from which there is a flight of investors, which may soon become panicky. “We should expect an imminent decline in markets and a flight from risky assets, which include bonds of developing countries, including Russia and their companies. At one time, speculators entered into these assets with huge “leverage” (purchase of securities using borrowed funds from brokers - editor's note), says a well-known trader.
However, we should soon expect that the crowd principle will come into play, when several large players rush to dump ruble assets, considering that the risks are already too great, the rest will rush to follow this example, and I will save myself in the dollar.

Demura predicts a collapse in the ruble exchange rate in the coming weeks

The collapse of the ruble will begin this August, says Demura, who does not agree with the majority opinion. Stepan Demura is confident that we should expect figures in 97 and 125 rub. per dollar. This could happen either before the end of this year or at the beginning of the next. Moreover, the situation on the foreign exchange market will not be in any way connected with the presidential elections, since the Russian authorities are simply not able to influence it. The government has no available funds, and the financial market in Russia is completely at the mercy of Western money when it comes to the debt and foreign exchange markets. At the same time, the notorious “airbag”, or Russian gold and foreign exchange reserves, which, as we know, exceed $412 billion, cannot save the ruble from collapse. Because, in fact, Russia's reserve fund has already been almost completely spent, and the fund for future generations is almost half spent. Because the funds of this fund were “unclear where they were invested.” That is, in fact, the country’s gold and foreign exchange reserves are not that large. Especially in comparison with the total external debt of state and corporate. According to Demura, everything that the Central Bank has today will not be enough even to pay off most of the Russian debts - the Central Bank has liquid reserves that are significantly smaller than the external debt. “There is simply no money for the stability of the ruble,” Demura summarizes, continuing that this is the real reason for the introduction of the notorious floating exchange rate. The ruble could collapse by half at any moment.

Europe will not help the Kremlin

Stepan Demura is confident that Russia’s hopes for the European Union to resist American sanctions are groundless. According to the analyst, the fact is that the European Union, specifically in order to reduce the share of Russian oil and gas in its market, has already made a political decision regarding the diversification of energy suppliers, “for this we must say a big thank you to Vladimir Putin and his policies.” Ultimately, this will lead to the fact that the export revenues of Russian oil and gas exporters will be seriously reduced, and this, naturally, will lead to the fact that Russian budget revenues will decline even further. There is no point in seeing any special malicious intent in the Americans’ desire. “As they say in business, it’s nothing personal—they just want to take advantage of the current situation,” the analyst is confident.

Shale gas supplies from the USA could ruin Gazprom

Stepan Demura also ridiculed the assertion of a number of officials and experts that American liquefied gas, given the cost of transporting it to consumers in Europe, will be much more expensive than Russian gas, which, as is known, comes to Europe via pipeline. A well-known trader suggests leaving these statements “on the conscience” of those experts and officials who make such statements. Since, in fact, already now the cost of American gas delivered to Europe by tanker and liquefied (turned back into a gaseous state) does not exceed 100 US dollars per 1000 cubic meters. At the same time, Gazprom cannot sell gas at a price below $150 per thousand cubic meters, without the work being a loss. “Look at what could be disadvantageous for Europe in reorienting to liquefied gas supplied from the USA or Qatar,” Demura sneers. Europe will never object to the supply of liquefied gas from the United States, if only because it leads to lower prices for consumers and diversifies the market, the famous trader continues, and recalls that the so-called experts a few years ago “beat themselves in the chest” and argued that the shale revolution in the United States would never cause a reduction in energy prices. Moreover, Demura emphasized that the shale revolution in the United States continues. There has been an increase in the number of gas hubs designed for the export of liquefied gas. In addition, the development of a new very large shale oil field is beginning in Texas, about which the Texas oil workers themselves say that they are ready to give this gas for free, if they are ready to sign contracts for oil supplies. This proves that natural gas, as an energy carrier, is becoming extremely cheap in the context of the shale revolution.
Speaking with journalists about American sanctions, Demura also touched upon the topic that is currently being discussed in the Russian media, regarding the fact that the United States intends to hinder the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline; he doubted the need to build a new gas pipeline, since Nord Stream 1" is underloaded. He suggested that the real reason that the Russian authorities want to build this gas pipeline is corruption. “I think it’s all about construction contracts,” says the expert. In his opinion, contracts of this type are the most tasty morsels of government orders, not counting kickbacks. This explains all the excitement around Nord Stream, Turkish Stream, or the Power of Siberia gas pipeline. “The guys are digging the ground, and the infrastructure is more expensive than gold,” says Demura.
In addition, the expert recalled that many European companies find themselves in a difficult situation after Trump signs the new sanctions law. This will call into question Russian projects such as Turkish Stream, since the pipes of this gas pipeline along the bottom of the Black Sea were to be laid by an Italian company, which may now be subject to sanctions. But don’t be upset, because no one needs the Turkish Stream except Gazprom, Demura is sure. He explains this by the fact that work has already begun on laying a gas pipeline to Turkey from the Israeli giant Leviathan field, which is located in the Mediterranean Sea. It will be ready in 2018. Thus, Türkiye is turning into the largest hub for the supply of Middle Eastern gas to the European Union. This situation will further worsen Russia's position in the European market.

Material prepared by Alexandra Melnik

Recently, global markets have seen a rapid decline in indices, oil is losing price, and currency quotes are falling. Disappointing news also comes from China - the volume of exports there fell by 4.5 percent in December. Some large corporations are also falling in price; in particular, Apple has lost 7 percent in price in a few weeks. Are such phenomena evidence of a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis? Well-known financial and stock market analyst Stepan Demura gave his opinion on this matter and his forecasts for the future of Russia and China, as well as his assessment of the situation at Apple.

– Oil and world indices continue to fall. Can we say that the global economy is approaching a crisis on the scale of 2008?

– The crisis in the real sector has been going on for a long time. Virtual markets are not in a crisis right now. The worse the economy performs, the higher the markets will climb. We already went through this in 2007-2008. Because investors will rely on central banks, and central banks will drain liquidity, and virtual markets will grow on liquidity.

The crisis has already arrived, crisis phenomena continue. If we talk about when the markets will fall by 60 percent, then we need to wait a little, and they will fall.

– What do you think will happen to Russia in a crisis?

- There is an obscene word, and there is a censored word - complete ass. Falling incomes of the population, unemployment, wild loan rates, rare poverty, impoverishment of everything and everyone, naturally, the fall of the ruble and terrible inflation because of this.

– What ruble exchange rate do you predict?

– His first goal is 97, then 125, then 250. The goals are old, nothing has changed there over the past few years. We need to wait until this strengthening of the ruble ends, and then it will be possible to estimate at least something about the timing. I think that within a year we will probably see 100. Now it is difficult to say more precisely in terms of time, because there is too much uncertainty in the cyclical nature of world markets.

– Here’s a question regarding China: the Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China reported that export volumes in the country in December decreased by almost 4.5 percent, and this is a record drop over the past two years. What do you think will happen to the economy of this country in such conditions?

– The Chinese economy is a colossus with long legs. My legs are cracking, they simply collapse under the weight of my own mistakes. There, even lending to the economy does not lead to its growth, and the fact that their GDP is pictorial has already become the talk of the town. Just recently they put under house arrest an economist professor who cast doubt on the 6.7 percent “drawn” by the Communist Party and named the figure at 1.6 or 1.5 percent. As a result, he was put under house arrest. So everything there is like in a “scoop”: one façade, and behind the façade there is rot. All this is now starting to fall apart. If you look at purchases, purchasing power, and the drop in car sales (for the first time in 20 years), you can come to the conclusion that the “Chinese fairy tale” is over. And this is exactly where the militaristic rhetoric comes in, that we (the Chinese) will now “beat everyone”, we will defeat America - like in the “soviet”, everything is like ours. When the economy is completely crap, militaristic rhetoric begins. We had “Krymnash”, they are now starting “Taiwannash”. Let's see how Uncle Xi will be clicked on the head and nose, this is worth a look.

– I would like to know your opinion regarding Apple – not everything is so smooth there either and not everything has been so good lately. The share price fell 7%. What do you think is the reason for this decline - the crisis or the fact that there are bad managers at the helm?

– Let’s put it this way: even the founder of Apple, Steven Jobs, once said that the company would die when sales managers, and not engineers, took the helm. This is what happened 3 or 4 years ago. Apple began to have problems with innovation and pricing policy; sales of the 10th iPhone, as far as I understand, did not go very well, to put it mildly. They continually lower their estimates of future sales, plus competition. You understand, “show-offs” are good when there is purchasing power, and when this ability decreases, “show-offs” somehow fade into the background. If you need a normal, good phone, there are plenty of Chinese analogues, the same Samsung, which costs much less and has the same functions... This is Apple's marketing policy. Once she "shot", now they are shooting themselves in the foot. Nothing, the company has 150 or 200 billion in cash, they have a lot of money. They will simply occupy their niche. Their marketing policy is a relic of the past because they positioned themselves as this very expensive item that you couldn't live without. Once again: this works when the consumer has money. When money runs out, people try to do without “show-offs”, at least normal, sensible people. That's all. Why should they now reduce the prices of their phones? Then they will not be “show-offs”, but the usual Huawei or some other nonsense, which in functionality is not much different from Apple. So yes, we can say that this is a marketing policy, marketing miscalculations, and they will not get out of them, because they will lose the status of expensive “show-offs”, that’s all.

– And here’s the last question: just today, an interview with Anton Siluanov (First Deputy Prime Minister – ed.) was published on the Kommersant website. In this interview, Siluanov said the following: “We have become less interested in changes in the oil price environment, we notice less reports of stock market indices, and we pay less attention to changes in the ruble exchange rate.” How would you comment on such a statement?

– The question here is not for me, but for professional psychiatrists and narcologists, so I cannot answer. Remember Kin-dza-dza: “The government lives on another planet, son.” Moreover, their world, apparently, is very illusory, and it was created under the influence of some psychotropic drugs, so it is difficult for me to judge their adequacy.

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Russia faces “either a default or Pavlovsk reform number two,” says a well-known financial analyst.

Demura made this prediction during one of his last seminars. According to him, the activities of the Russian financial authorities have led to the fact that the ruble has become an object for the so-called carry trade (a game on bonds and interest rate differences. – Ed.). At the same time, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for a long time maintained the stability of the economy by “anchoring” inflation expectations, the economic authorities of the Russian Federation maintained a high rate, making loans practically unprofitable for the economy. While foreign investors are attracted by the “fat yield on Russian bonds.” This situation, according to Demura, cannot last long.

The situation in the Russian economy is aggravated by unhealthy trends in the US economy, which is experiencing rising inflation and declining GDP. The financial analyst described the situation as very serious. “With multipliers that are at the bottom, inflation begins to accelerate.” In these conditions, the traditional response measures of the financial regulator in the form of raising rates, according to Demura, can lead to catastrophic consequences.

In this situation, Demura believes that the ruble still “has summer”, in the sense that at least until mid-August, the ruble may still hold. But already at the end of summer or early autumn, the national currency can expect a “grand collapse,” the analyst warns.

In addition, the expert drew attention to the worsening foreign policy situation. So, some time ago, during Trump’s presidential rally, capital fled to Russia, hoping for a quick lifting of sanctions, and today the reverse process has begun, and investors are leaving the country because it has become obvious that the sanctions will not be lifted. In addition, the fact that in the Western media there is a “wave of demonization of the Russian authorities,” including Russian President Vladimir Putin, should be an alarm bell for the Russian authorities. Demura draws an analogy with the information campaign waged by the Western media against Saddam Hussein. Moreover, according to the analyst, there is a great similarity even in details: at one time, Saddam Hussein thought that the West made it clear to him that it did not intend to interfere if Saddam took Kuwait. Putin, whom Demura calls “a product of PR technology, an empty place in human terms,” also had no doubt that no serious consequences would follow for the seizure of Crimea and “took the bait.” In addition, according to Demura, the Russian authorities should not count on the support of the notorious “84 percent.” Firstly, in not a single revolution do the so-called “shinarmass” decide anything - it is the active minority that decides. Secondly, for people whose “refrigerator is very empty,” something begins to “move in their heads.” Even those who, according to Demura, “ran around with Colorado ribbons,” increasingly remember that “quite recently they had cheap foreign cars, they went to Turkey, they traveled abroad.” Now they have to “change to a Zhiguli and go to some strange Sochi or to Crimea via the Kerch crossing.”

In 2017, great events and shocks await us, including with the ruble, Demura concluded.