Let's look at the population forecast for the main regions of the world. Since the authors adhere to the position that a multiple increase in the Earth’s population is not expected, they used UNFPA (UN) data from the available main quantitative forecasts (, ISA and World Bank).

Particularly interesting is the UNFPA report “World Population, 1990,” which contains the main reporting indicators of social development for countries of the world in the mid or late 80s. and a number of demographic indicators, calculated mainly for 1990. Let us recall its main provisions.

The main thing is the simultaneous comparability of data for different countries, which, according to the official statistics of these countries, would not be easy to achieve, or rather, even impossible. It also uses the responses of the governments of states and territories to questions posed to them in advance, plus calculations by UNFPA specialists on the world, its regions and countries. In this regard, the material is unique in accuracy (although it will always remain approximate due to the dissimilarity of statistical approaches, the state of accounting and other factors characterizing different countries), moreover, it is quite “fresh” in time. Moreover, it provides a picture of the coming changes in the economy and population of the world and its main regions up to 2025. The analysis of previous years covers mainly a 20-year period, sometimes “going down” to 1950. Thus, it is a broad retrospective .

Forecast for 2025 - 8 billion 467 million people.

If we take this forecast period, then only 147 million people - less than 5% of the world population growth - will be in the economic region, most of which are in the north. This will happen not due to an increase in the birth rate, but due to a decrease in mortality and growth (from 73 to 79 years). As for the birth rate, each woman in economically developed countries now has 1.9 children over the entire reproductive period, and in Western Europe - 1.58. Only immigration protects countries like Russia from depopulation. In Eastern countries it reached its lowest level in history.

If in 1950 economically developed countries accounted for 32.7% of population growth, then in 2025 it will account for only 15.8%. The first place will continue to be (1950 - 52.9; 2025 - 57%), the second is Africa, whose share increases from 8.6 to 18.4%, the third is Latin America and ( 6.4 and 8.8%).

At least 95% of the world population growth in 1990-2025 will occur in Asia, Africa and. This is more than thirty years ago, when in 1965-1970. Natural population growth in developing countries has reached its peak.

Regional differentiation in population growth is increasingly intensifying. If the average annual increase is 2.1%, then the population is growing by less than 1%, the Caribbean by 1.45%, Central America by 2.3%, and by 3% or more. It can be assumed that the total population of these countries will increase from 448 million people in 1990 to 760 million people in 2025.

A similar picture can be observed in Asia. If the annual rate is less than 1.3%, then in Southeast Asia it is 1.9%, and in South Asia it is 2.3% and continues to grow. The population today is approximately equal to the population of East Asia and slightly exceeds 1200 million people. The population, growing at 2.7% annually, has the highest growth rate after Africa.
Expects truly rapid population growth. It was in the 90s. The continent achieved record population growth of 3% per year, the highest in the region's history. Every year the population of Africa increases by 10 million people, which already gives rise to many problems today. The situation will become even more difficult in 10 years, when annual growth jumps to 15 million people and the region's population is projected to increase from 648 million in 1990 to 1,581 million in 2025.

In 1950, Europe's population accounted for 32.1% of the world's population. In 2025, their share will drop to 15.8%. On the contrary, it will be almost 20% in 2025.

It will approach the population size of Russia, which pursues a harsh policy of “one family, one child,” and by 2050, according to the results of the latest censuses and sociological research, it will become the most densely populated country. If by that time there will be an average of three children per Indian family, as now, then the country's population will be 2.16 billion people. This is fraught not only with serious social problems, but can also cause irreparable damage to the natural environment.

Meanwhile, the experience of China shows that it is possible to control the processes of population growth. In recent years, the Chinese government, through tough measures, has managed to limit the increase in the number of residents, and, according to experts, 1.4 billion people will live there in the middle of the next century. India may have the same figure if its authorities manage to implement the principle: “one family, two children.”

Looking even further into the future - the end of the 21st century - we can see that many countries will face very serious difficulties if the projected population growth rates continue. For example, the population could reach 500 million people—the same number living in all of Africa in 1982.

Pessimistic UN forecast: Russia's population will halve by 2100

The planet's population will increase by two billion people over the next 30 years and reach 9.7 billion people by mid-century. By the same time, the population of Russia may decrease to 124.6 million people. This forecast is contained in the published report United Nations (UN) on global demographic changes.

According to the pessimistic UN forecast, by 2050 the population of the Russian Federation will decrease from the current 145.9 million to 124.6 million people, and by 2100 - to 83.7 million, that is, almost twice. According to an optimistic forecast, in 30 years there will be 147.2 million people living in Russia, and in 2100 - 182.1 million. The average forecast for these time frames is 135.8 million and 126.1 million, respectively.

From the UN report it follows that Russia now has one of the lowest ratios of men to women in the world - there are 86.4 men per 100 women.

The birth rate in Russia is expected to decrease from 9.29 million births in 2015-2020 to 8.24 million in 2020-2025. The minimum figure for the entire century will be 7.08 million babies in 2030-2035. After this, the birth rate in Russia will begin to increase, according to the UN.

According to UN forecasts, by 2100 the world's population will be 10.8 billion. By 2027, India could overtake China in population growth, the report says. Besides India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt and the United States are expected to see the largest population growth in the coming decades. Sub-Saharan Africa's population is expected to nearly double by 2050.

Russia Population Projections

Let's take a closer look at the results of the latest, 24th cycle of UN calculations for the 2015 revision for Russia.

As already mentioned, during this cycle of calculations, probabilistic forecasts of fertility and mortality were implemented for each country in the world. Median trajectories from the set of predicted trajectories of total fertility and life expectancy formed the basis for the average (median) version of the forecast. In addition, 80% and 95% confidence intervals were calculated to estimate future trends.

According to the UN median forecast, Russia's population will decrease to 138.7 million people by mid-2030, with an 80% probability of between 136.3 and 141.1 million people, and with a 95% probability of 135.1 to 142.5 million people (Fig. 10). By 2050, with a 95% probability, the population of Russia will range from 119.1 to 138.6 million people, and according to the median forecast - 128.6 million people.

The population decline compared to the 2015 baseline will be 3.3% by 2030 according to the median forecast, and with a 95% probability - from -5.8% to -0.7%.

By 2050, population decline will increase according to the median forecast to 10.4% compared to 2015, and with a 95% probability - from -17.0% to -3.4%.

Figure 10. UN estimates (1950-2015) and probabilistic projections (2015-2100) of the Russian population, 2015 revision,

As in the previous three cycles of calculations, 8 variants of the deterministic forecast were worked out in more detail. Particular attention is paid to the consequences of different fertility trajectories. 5 options for fertility forecast were considered: the middle option corresponds to the median trajectory of the total fertility rate from a bundle of several tens of thousands of probabilistic trajectories for each country (it can be implemented with a probability of 50%), the high fertility option involves using coefficient values ​​0.5 higher, the low option the birth rate is 0.5 lower than in the average option. In addition, the option of a constant birth rate (without changes at the level of 2010-2015) and a birth rate that ensures simple reproduction was considered. These fertility options were combined with options for “normal” or “average” mortality (the median trajectory from a bundle of hundreds of thousands of probabilistic trajectories of life expectancy by sex at birth for each country) and “normal migration.” In addition, the options of constant mortality (remaining unchanged at the 2010-2015 level), zero migration and constant fertility and mortality were considered (Table 3).

Table 3. Scheme of options for forecast calculations of the 2015 revision

Forecast options	Assumptions
	Fertility	Mortality	International migration
Low birth rate	Low	Normal	Normal
Average birth rate	Average	Normal	Normal
High birth rate	High	Normal	Normal
Constant fertility	Constantly at the level of 2010-2015	Normal	Normal
Fertility at the replacement level	At the level of simple reproduction from 2015-2020	Normal	Normal
Permanent mortality	Average		Normal
No changes	Constant at the level of 2010-2015	Constant at the level of 2010-2015	Normal
Zero migration	Average	Normal	Zero from 2015-2020

The global population projections derived from these projections lie within a wider range of possible values, limited by low and high fertility scenarios (with “normal” mortality, implying increased life expectancy, and “normal” migration). By mid-2030, Russia's population could be, according to these estimates, from 133.6 to 143.7 million people, and by mid-2050 - from 114.6 to 143.3 million people (Fig. 11).

Only if the “high birth rate” option is implemented, the population of Russia may be higher in 2030 than in 2015 (by 0.2%), according to all other forecast options, population decline is expected. It will be minimal when implementing the “simple reproduction” option (-0.1%), the most significant when implementing the “low birth rate” forecast option (-6.9%) and the “no changes” forecast option (-6.1%) .

By 2050, the population of Russia will decrease compared to 2015 according to all eight forecast options. The reduction will range from -20% if the “low birth rate” option is implemented to -0.1% if the “high birth rate” forecast option is implemented.

Figure 11. UN estimates (1950-2015) and deterministic projections (2015-2100) of the population of Russia, 2015 revision,
million people at mid-year

The average annual growth rate of the Russian population according to all eight UN forecast options will decrease in the next decade, remaining positive only under the “high birth rate” option (in 2015-2025) and the “simple reproduction” option (in 2015-2020). Until 2040 they will be negative, that is, the population will decline according to all forecast options (Fig. 12). Only starting from 2040-2045 is it possible to resume population growth according to the “high birth rate” option and from 2065-2070. according to the “simple reproduction” option.

If the “medium” version of the forecast is implemented, the average annual growth rate, while remaining negative, will approach zero at the end of the current century, and if the “low” version of the forecast is implemented, it will stabilize in the second half of the century at a level of about -1% per year.

The considered forecast options indicate that, under certain conditions, maintaining the growth trend in Russia's population is possible, but unlikely. Under the most favorable conditions, its value will be insignificant - most likely within 0.2% per year. Population loss is more likely, and with greater intensity - up to -0.5% per year or more.

Figure 12. Average annual population growth in Russia according to estimates (1950-2015) and UN deterministic forecasts (2015-2100),
revision 2015, %*

According to UN forecasts, a small natural increase in Russia's population in the coming years is possible only if scenarios of high fertility or a direct transition to “simple reproduction” are implemented (Fig. 13). However, in the latter case, due to the peculiarities of the age structure of the Russian population, negative natural growth is inevitable in 2020-2045 and close to zero in 2045-2070. If the high version of the fertility forecast is implemented, natural increase is possible starting from 2045-2050, and its value may exceed 0.6‰ in the last third of the century.

All other forecast options show the inevitability of natural population decline in Russia of varying intensity. According to UN estimates, in 2010-2015 the rate of natural increase averaged -1.1‰ per year. In 2015-2020, its value will range from -3.7‰ according to the “low birth rate” option to +0.8‰ according to the “simple reproduction” option, and in 2025-2030 - from -7.4‰ according to the “low birth rate” option. birth rate” to -1.5‰ according to the “high birth rate” option. According to the “average birth rate” option, the intensity of natural decline will increase until the 2030s. In 2015-2020 it will average -1.9‰ per year and -5.1‰ in 2030-2035. In the future, the intensity of natural decline will weaken - to -1‰ per year in the 2080s.

Figure 13. Natural population growth in Russia according to estimates (1950-2015) and UN forecasts (2015-2100), revision 2015, per 1000 people*

* based on five-year intervals, the beginning of the interval is marked on the graph

In the UN forecast calculations for the 2015 revision, the only option for “normal migration” was used (except for the option for “zero migration”). For Russia, it assumed a decrease in the migration growth rate from 1.6‰ in 2010-2015 to 1.1‰ in 2015-2020 and 0.7‰ in 2020-2070. In absolute terms, the hypothesis was that the amount of migration growth would decrease from 1,118 thousand people for 2010-2015 (224 thousand people on average per year) to 809 thousand people for 2015-2020 (162) and 500 thousand people for all the next five years until the middle of the century (100 thousand people on average per year). It was assumed that by the end of the century the migration increase would be reduced to 50 thousand people per year.

Despite the fact that the UN hypotheses for Russia, in accordance with the latest revision in 2015, look like the most favorable ones since the early 2000s, they are still far from the optimistic forecasts of Rosstat (Table 4).

It is worth recalling, however, that since 2014, Rosstat’s forecasts have taken into account data for Crimea. But the discrepancy cannot be explained only by the additional population of the peninsula - more than 2.3 million people, since in 2050, according to the average version of the Rosstat forecast, the population of our country should be about 146.3 million people, that is, about 17 million higher than the median indicators latest UN forecasts.

The differences are largely due to different amounts of projected migration growth. UN experts propose that from 2020 to 2050 we should focus on a migration growth rate of 500 thousand people every 5 years, and Rosstat’s forecast indicators exceed these estimates by more than a million people every five years. Thus, due to migration, the discrepancy in estimates of the population of Russia according to the average version of the Rosstat forecast and according to the average version of the UN forecast is about 8 million people.

It is also worth noting that the increase in the birth rate (especially at the end of the period) according to the Rosstat forecast occurs much faster than the UN forecast, as well as the scenario for increasing life expectancy, which domestic experts look more optimistic.

Table 4. Comparison of average UN scenarios (2015 revision)
and Rosstat (2016)

	2015-2020	2025-2030	2045-2050
UN
TAC, children per woman
Life expectancy, both sexes, years
Rosstat
TFR*, children per woman
Life expectancy*, both sexes, years
Migration increase, thousand people

* average values ​​for the period

UN: Russia's population will decrease to 136.5 million by 2035

World Population Dynamics

Years	Population, million people	Growth over the decade, million people	Annual absolute growth, million people	Average annual growth rate, %
				1,6
				1,8
				2,0
				1,8
				1,7
				1,6
				1,4
				1,3

The rapid beginning of the “demographic explosion” even then caused considerable concern among politicians, scientists, and the public.

Table 4 also presents UN forecasts regarding the world population in 2010 and 2020. They amount to 7.2 and 8 billion people, respectively. The second of these "benchmarks" appeared at the 1992 conference in Rio de Janeiro. For 2025, the level of 8.5 billion people was also determined there. And at the end of 1994, the UN released its longer-term forecast, according to which by 2050 the world's population should reach 9.8 billion people. (At the same time, the lowest level is determined at 7.9 billion people, and the highest at 11.9 billion.) Despite the prospects for such growth in the world's population, the data in Table 4 indicate that the gradual attenuation of the “demographic explosion” appears to be will affect not only relative, but also absolute indicators of population reproduction. It should also be taken into account that in 1994, the UN Population Fund developed a twenty-year plan for the demographic development of the planet, which envisages expanding programs to limit population growth almost throughout the world by 2015.

It would be wrong to consider the phenomenon of a “population explosion” only in a planetary aspect, since it also has a pronounced regional aspect.

Table 5

Population growth rates by region of the world (%)

Table 6

World, regions	Population, million people	Share, %
The world at large					100,0	100,0
Foreign Europe					9,4	6,0
Foreign Asia					58,8	57,8
Africa					12,2	18,7
North America					5,2	3,9
Latin America					8,5	8,9
Australia and Oceania					0,5	0,5
Russia, CIS					5,4	4,2

It follows from Table 6 that in the second half of the 20th century, in all major regions of the world, there was a decrease in the average annual population growth rate, especially noticeable in foreign Europe. The only exception is Africa, where, apparently, the peak of the population explosion is still ongoing. In 2000 - 2025, this trend will generally continue, and will also spread to Africa. Such a decrease in relative indicators will also affect the absolute indicators of the population of large regions.

Analyzing the data in Table 6, it should be noted that the most populated part of the world is foreign Asia, which accounts for 58% of the world's population.

And, nevertheless, the share of foreign Asia in the world population by 2025 will decrease slightly. This is explained, first of all, by the rapid “advance” of Africa, where, despite a slight decrease in average annual growth rates, they will remain the highest in the first quarter of the 21st century. In terms of its share of the world population, Africa overtook foreign Europe in the early 80s, and in the future this position will be further strengthened. Third place, both in terms of population and share in the world population, will remain in Latin America. And the greatest reduction in this share will occur in foreign Europe and North America - regions with the lowest average annual growth. The share of CIS countries will also decrease noticeably.

Apparently, this trend will continue in the period from 2025 to 2050. According to the UN forecast, in 2050 the population of Asia will be 5741 million people (58.4% of the global total), the population of Africa will be 2141 million (21.8%), the population of Latin America will be 839 million (8.5%), the population of foreign countries will be Europe - 548 million (5.6%), the population of North America - 389 million (4%), and the population of Russia - 130 million (1.3%).

If we look at the population explosion phenomenon at the subregional level, we can see significant differences, especially within Asia and Africa. Thus, in the early 90s, the population of East Asia grew by 1.3% per year, the population of Southeast Asia - by 1.9%, South Asia - by 2.3%, and Southwest Asia - by 2.7 %, and Africa - by 3% per year. This order of subregions will apparently continue in the future. It determines the forecast for population growth at this level.

From all that has been said, it follows that the “demographic explosion” in the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America, which took several decades, will noticeably decline in the 21st century. This is a natural course of events, indicating that in these regions such “braking engines” as growth in urbanization, changes in the age structure of the population, an increase in average life expectancy, the involvement of women in the production process, progress in education and healthcare are gradually turning on. A general increase in the social and cultural level of development of these countries should also lead to an expansion of the arsenal of means and methods of birth control.

And, nevertheless, one cannot help but see that the rapid growth of the world population has already created and continues to create a kind of demographic background for all other global problems of mankind. This is quite understandable: after all, the more people there are, the greater the load on the territory, the more food and natural resources are required. Many researchers of this problem do not see any other alternative: either humanity will find the strength to solve it, or nature, which is being destroyed by human efforts, will get rid of the species Homo sapiens, which has introduced such a disturbance into the biosphere that no other existing species has introduced in the entire history of life on the planet . In this interpretation, the demographic problem today becomes perhaps the most important problem for the survival of mankind.

To explain the processes of world population growth, the concept of demographic transition was developed. According to this concept, in a traditional society, the birth and death rates are high and the population grows very slowly. The demographic transition begins almost simultaneously with the formation of industrial society. The transition from the traditional to the modern type of reproduction (low birth rate - low mortality - low natural increase) was completed in the industrial countries of Western Europe and North America in the 50s. twentieth century, and in the last quarter of the century it began in a number of developing countries and regions (China, Southeast Asia, Latin America).

In the first phase, the decline in mortality (due to improved nutrition and health care) occurs faster than the decline in fertility, resulting in a sharp increase in natural population growth. In this phase there is a “demographic explosion”. In the second phase, mortality continues to decline, but the birth rate falls even faster, as a result of which population growth gradually slows down. The third phase is characterized by a slowdown in the decline in the birth rate with a slight increase in mortality, so that the natural increase remains at a low level. Industrialized countries are now close to completing this phase. In the fourth phase, mortality and birth rates become almost identical, and the process of demographic stabilization ends.

The demographic transition process is expected to last until approximately 2100, when the population will stabilize at 10.5 billion people.

Level of urbanization of the population. At the end of the twentieth century. Almost half of the world's inhabitants live in cities, and in industrialized countries about 75% of urban dwellers live in cities. The higher the level of economic development, the more the urban lifestyle spreads into the countryside. Therefore, for rich countries with well-developed transport, energy and information infrastructure, the differences between cities and rural areas no longer have much socio-economic significance. In developing countries, on the contrary, the growth of cities and the spread of an urban lifestyle have a strong impact on the type of population reproduction, migration activity, consumption structure and propensity to save. Cities have lower birth rates, stronger social dynamics, and sharper social contrasts. Urbanization promotes the growth of entrepreneurial activity, but it also requires the expansion of government social programs. Agrarian overpopulation and migration of rural residents to cities are causing the formation of vast slum areas inhabited by representatives of marginalized strata. It is expected that in 2025, 55% of residents of developing countries will live in cities. Already, this part of the world is home to the largest and fastest growing megacities: Mexico City, Cairo, Sao Paulo, Seoul, Bombay, Shanghai, etc.

UN, March 12 - RIA Novosti, Dmitry Gornostaev. The new UN forecast on the state of the population turned out to be quite optimistic for Russia: the rate of decline in the number of residents of the Russian Federation has decreased significantly compared to the previous report a month ago.

According to a forecast released on Wednesday by the UN Department of Social and Economic Affairs, Russia's population will decrease by 24 million people by 2050 to 116.097 million. The UN Secretary General's previous report "World Demographic Trends", prepared in January of this year, predicted a reduction in the Russian population by 33 million people. And the November report of the UN Population Fund was even less optimistic, predicting a decrease in the number of Russians by 2050 by 34 million - to 107.8 million inhabitants.

According to a new UN forecast, the Russian population will decrease over four decades by 17.6% from the 2009 figure of 140.874 million. In 2015, 137.983 million people will live in Russia, in 2025 - 132.345 million.

Russia has the eighth highest rate of population decline - Bulgaria is in the lead here, the number of residents of which will decrease by 28.5% in 41 years. It is followed immediately by four republics of the former USSR - Belarus (24.5%), Moldova (24.1%), Ukraine (23.4%) and Lithuania (21.5%).

Life expectancy of Russians has increased

The increase in the total fertility rate - the ratio of the number of newborns to women - was the main reason for the change in the forecast for the better for Russia, experts from the Population Division of the UN Department of Social and Economic Affairs explained to RIA Novosti. The rate increased from 1.30 in 2000-2005 to 1.37 in 2005-2010 and is projected to reach 1.83 by 2050. However, even in this case it will not return to the indicators of Soviet times: in the RSFSR in 1975-1980 it was 1.94.

In the world as a whole, this figure continues to gradually decline: from 3.83 in 1975-1980 to the current 2.56. Forecast for 2050 - 2.02.

The second factor that made it possible to give more optimistic estimates was a decrease in mortality rates and an increase in life expectancy.

In addition, as experts clarified, the current report is the most accurate in the entire UN system, since it uses the latest data - both official and reliable unofficial - from open sources. This forecast is the first to be based on 2008 data. All previous reports, including those of the Secretary General, were based on figures and trends from 2006, which actually reflected the state of affairs in 2005.

However, according to experts, changes in indicators in Russia by 7% or almost 8 million people for the better are not a simple mathematical correction, but a reflection of trends towards improving the situation in the country. “After a period of decline in fertility, the most noticeable period of which occurred in 2000-2005, strong growth has begun over the past two to three years,” explained the Population Department.

According to a new report, life expectancy in the Russian Federation in 2005-2010 is 66.5 years; for 2010-2015 it is predicted to be almost 68 years; for 2015-2020 - 69.3 years; for 2020-2025 - already in 70 years, and in the period 2045-2050, life expectancy should be almost three-quarters of a century - 74.9 years.

At the same time, a tendency to reduce infant mortality per thousand live births is predicted. Now this figure in Russia is 11.9. In 2015-2020, UN experts predict its decline to 10.5, and by 2045-2050 - to 7.3. However, this is significantly lower than even the current rates of many Western countries.

But in general, UN experts note, “we are quite optimistic in our forecasts for Russia and believe that life expectancy will increase and mortality will decrease.”

The high level of migration also makes a contribution, although, according to experts, it is much less significant than the increase in the birth rate and the decrease in mortality.

Russia leaves the top ten most populated countries

According to 2009 data, Russia ranks 9th in the world in terms of population. The leadership is still retained by China, where 1.346 billion people live. India has almost caught up with it - 1.198 billion people live there. The United States follows far behind with 315 million. Between the top three and Russia are Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nigeria. Next after the Russian Federation, in tenth place, is Japan.

It is noteworthy that among European countries, Germany has the highest figure - 16th place with 82 million inhabitants.

In 2050, the changes to this list will be significant. Russia will leave the top ten, moving to 14th place, and India, whose population will increase to 1.614 billion, will knock out the seemingly unchanged leader, China, from first place, where “only” 1.417 billion people will live. “Bronze” will remain with the Americans - by that time, as predicted, there will be 404 million of them.

The countries that are ahead of Russia now will include Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Philippines, Egypt and Mexico.

The Europeans will finally give up their positions. In 2050, the most populous country of the Old World - Great Britain - will have a population of only 72 million people (25th place), that is, 10 million less than Germany, the leader on the continent today. By the way, Germany itself will be one line lower - with 71 million.

The average Russian will age by six years

Russia will follow the global trend of population aging. A previous report by the UN Secretary General stated that in 2050 the number of people over 60 years of age will for the first time exceed the number of children under 15 years of age.

The average Russian will age six years over the next four decades. Now the average age of a Russian resident is 37.9 years. By 2050 it will be 44 years. The main reason is the reduction in the number of the most able-bodied part of the population (from 15 to 59 years old): now it makes up 67.4% of all citizens of the Russian Federation, and in 2050 it is projected to decrease to 52.1%.

The number of children under 15 will increase slightly - from 14.8% to 16.2%, but the number of pensioners will grow much more noticeably. People over 60 years old in Russia will be 31.7% (versus the current 17.8%), and over 80 years old - 6.0% versus the current 2.8%.

Because ten girls have less money than nine guys...

In Russia, as in most former Soviet republics, according to a UN report, there remains a shortage of men. There are only 86 of them per hundred representatives of the fair sex in the Russian Federation - one of the lowest figures among UN member countries.

Below - only in Latvia - 85. A similar picture is in Ukraine and Estonia - 86, a little more in Armenia and Belarus - 87, in Lithuania - 88, in Georgia - 89, in Moldova - 90.

Most men - 205 per 100 women - live in the United Arab Emirates.

In general, in the world there are slightly more representatives of the stronger sex than women - in a ratio of 102 to 100.

According to a report released on Wednesday, there are now 6 billion 829 million 360 thousand people living on Earth. By 2050, the planet's population is projected to increase to 9 billion 150 million people. This is the data from the so-called “average forecast” from which indicators for countries are calculated. According to the "minimum forecast" there will be only 7 billion 959 million earthlings in 2050, and according to the "maximum" - 10 billion 461 million. The main increase is projected to come from developing countries.

Over the next 30 years, the world population will increase by 2 billion people from today's 7.7 billion people, and by the end of the century there will be about 11 billion people living on the planet. At the same time, the number of Russian residents may decrease from 145 million to 99.7 million people by 2078. These estimates are given in a new paper on population change. The report is posted on website organizations.

According to a more optimistic UN forecast, the population of Russia will increase to 160 million people. The average median value for 2078 is 127.4 million people.

The report also reports that in Russia there are 86.4 men per 100 women. This is one of the lowest rates in the world. Fewer men than women live in Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia, Hong Kong, and Nepal. According to UN forecasts, the rate will increase, but very slowly: by 2060, there will be 90.2 men per 100 women.

The median age of a Russian resident is 39.6 years. According to the report, the country's population will age and by 2035 the average age of Russians will be 44 years.

At the same time, the birth rate in Russia will decrease: from 9.29 million newborns in 2015-2020 to 7.08 million newborns in 2030-2035.

India is expected to have the highest population growth by 2050, overtaking China in population around 2027. India, along with eight other countries, will account for more than half of the projected population growth between now and 2050.

The largest growth is expected in nine countries: India, Nigeria and Pakistan, followed by the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt, the United States of America and Ethiopia. Overall, the population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to nearly double by 2050.

However, the growth in these countries occurs against the backdrop of a slowdown in the global birth rate. In 1990, the average number of births per woman was 3.2. By 2019, this figure had dropped to 2.5 births per woman, and by 2050, it is projected to decrease to 2.2 births: in order to avoid a decline in the country's population in the long term (in the absence of immigration), it is necessary to ensure a birth rate of 2.1 births per woman.

Populations in an increasing number of countries are declining.

Since 2010, 27 countries and regions have seen declines of at least 1% due to persistently low fertility rates. This trend is expected to spread to 55 countries between now and 2050, with almost half of them seeing population declines of at least 10%.

In some cases, population decline is exacerbated by high rates of emigration. Migration flows have become the main reason for population changes in some regions. Bangladesh, Nepal and the Philippines are experiencing the largest outflows driven by demand for migrant workers, while Myanmar, Syria and Venezuela are the countries with the largest numbers leaving due to violence, armed conflict and insecurity. In countries where populations are declining, immigration is expected to help cope - especially in Belarus, Estonia and Germany.

“Most of the time, rapid population growth occurs in the poorest countries, where it creates additional problems,”

- notes Liu Zhenming, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs.

Countries must fight poverty and hunger, achieve greater equality, and improve healthcare and education.

At the same time, growth offers opportunity for many developing countries: recent declines in fertility mean that the working-age population (25 to 64 years) is growing faster than other age groups, which could improve opportunities for faster economic growth.

According to the report's authors, by 2050, every sixth person on Earth will be over 65 years old (today - every eleventh). In some regions, including North Africa, Asia and Latin America, the proportion of older people is expected to double over the next 30 years.

In Europe and North America, the proportion of people over 65 will reach a quarter by 2050.

The increase in the proportion and number of older people is expected to place increased financial pressure on countries in the coming decades, placing additional costs on public health and social protection systems and affecting pensions.

Although overall life expectancy will increase (from 64.2 years in 1990 to 77.1 years in 2050), life expectancy in poorer countries will remain low. The average life expectancy of a person born today in one of the least developed countries will be about seven years shorter than that of a child born in one of the developed countries. The main reasons are high levels of child and maternal mortality, violence and the spread of HIV.